WON
Result: RFS 3-1 BFC Daugavpils
DirectWinPredict Latvia Virsliga RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
R

RFS

Home Side
W W L W W
9W 0D 1L
VS
3-1
4:00 pm
Latvia Virsliga
B
BFC Daugavpils
Away Side
D W D D D
2W 4D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing RFS to win — Wednesday, 7th January 2026
Best Odds 1.17
Confidence 77%
Implied Prob 85.5%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — RFS to win
1.17
RFS Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
85.5%
Based on 1.17 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-8.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
9
RFS
1
Draws
0
BFC Daugavpils
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick RFS won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
RFS
Metric
BFC Daugavpils
3
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1
60%
Clean Sheet %
30%
9-0-1
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate Comparison
90%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
R0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 4.6%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
R1
1-0 14.1%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 3.0%
1-3 0.7%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
R2
2-0 14.1%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 3.0%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
R3
3-0 9.4%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 4.7%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 1.9%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (14.1%) 2-0 (14.1%) 3-0 (9.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   B=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
RFS Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
BFC Daugavpils Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
RFS
Overall
9.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
8.3
BFC Daugavpils
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 31%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
26.06.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS2
22.06.26VIR
RFS6
Ogre United0
17.06.26VIR
Riga FC2
RFS1
13.06.26VIR
Grobina1
RFS3
29.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
RFS2
25.05.26VIR
RFS3
Tukums 20001
21.05.26VIR
RFS4
Jelgava0
17.05.26VIR
Auda0
RFS3
13.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS1
08.05.26VIR
RFS5
FK Liepaja0
Recent Form
RFS
26.06.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS |2
W
22.06.26VIR
RFS6
Ogre United |0
W
17.06.26VIR
Riga FC2
RFS |1
L
13.06.26VIR
Grobina1
RFS |3
W
29.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
RFS |2
W
25.05.26VIR
RFS3
Tukums 2000 |1
W
21.05.26VIR
RFS4
Jelgava |0
W
17.05.26VIR
Auda0
RFS |3
W
13.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS |1
W
08.05.26VIR
RFS5
FK Liepaja |0
W
BFC Daugavpils
25.06.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC |0
D
20.06.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Grobina |0
W
16.06.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova |0
D
12.06.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils |1
D
31.05.26VIR
Jelgava1
BFC Daugavpils |1
D
26.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Auda |1
L
21.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils3
Ogre United |1
W
17.05.26VIR
FK Liepaja2
BFC Daugavpils |1
L
13.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS |1
L
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC |3
L
RFS (Home)
22.06.26VIR
RFS6
Ogre United |0
W
25.05.26VIR
RFS3
Tukums 2000 |1
W
21.05.26VIR
RFS4
Jelgava |0
W
08.05.26VIR
RFS5
FK Liepaja |0
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC |3
D
18.04.26VIR
RFS2
Super Nova |0
W
04.04.26VIR
RFS0
Auda |1
L
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils |1
W
06.03.26VIR
RFS2
Ogre United |0
W
28.02.26CF
RFS1
BFC Daugavpils |0
W
BFC Daugavpils (Away)
12.06.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils |1
D
31.05.26VIR
Jelgava1
BFC Daugavpils |1
D
17.05.26VIR
FK Liepaja2
BFC Daugavpils |1
L
02.05.26VIR
Grobina1
BFC Daugavpils |1
D
21.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils |1
D
12.04.26VIR
Auda2
BFC Daugavpils |3
W
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils |1
L
14.03.26VIR
Riga FC4
BFC Daugavpils |2
L
28.02.26CF
RFS1
BFC Daugavpils |0
L
14.02.26CF
Suduva5
BFC Daugavpils |3
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 7th January 2026, RFS host BFC Daugavpils at LNK Sporta Parks (Riga) in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend RFS to win as the standout selection.

RFS arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

BFC Daugavpils are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour RFS, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to BFC Daugavpils's 0, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rfs to win at odds of 1.17 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Latvia Virsliga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at LNK Sporta Parks (Riga), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 4 draws from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.17, which the numbers settle at around 60,20,20%. The whistle goes at 4:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for RFS vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our selection is 1 — RFS to win, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is RFS's current form?
RFS have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has BFC Daugavpils been performing recently?
BFC Daugavpils have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
RFS lead with 9 wins versus BFC Daugavpils's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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