WON
Result: Sweden 2-2 Greece
DirectWinPredict International Friendly Sweden vs Greece
S

Sweden

Home Side
L W W D L
3W 2D 5L
VS
2-2
International Friendly
G
Greece
Away Side
D L D W L
4W 2D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 4th June 2026
Best Odds 1.29
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 77.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.29
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
77.5%
Based on 1.29 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+12.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
55.5%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
3
Sweden
1
Draws
2
Greece
6
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
67%
Over 2.5
3.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Sweden
Metric
Greece
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.8
2.1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheet %
30%
3-2-5
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate Comparison
30%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
S0
0-0 3.3%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 6.4%
0-3 4.1%
0-4 2.0%
0-5 0.8%
S1
1-0 4.8%
1-1 9.4%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 6.0%
1-4 2.9%
1-5 1.1%
S2
2-0 3.5%
2-1 6.8%
2-2 6.7%
2-3 4.3%
2-4 2.1%
2-5 0.8%
S3
3-0 1.7%
3-1 3.3%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 2.1%
3-4 1.0%
3-5 0.4%
S4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (9.4%) 1-2 (9.2%) 2-1 (6.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Sweden
Overall
3.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
3.0
Greece
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 29%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
12.10.21WC
Sweden2
Greece0
08.09.21WC
Greece2
Sweden1
10.06.08EUR
Greece0
Sweden2
20.08.03FI
Sweden1
Greece2
13.02.02FI
Greece2
Sweden2
28.08.20OG
Sweden9
Greece0
Recent Form
Sweden
01.06.26FI
Norway3
Sweden1
L
31.03.26WC
Sweden3
Poland2
W
26.03.26WC
Ukraine1
Sweden3
W
18.11.25WC
Sweden1
Slovenia1
D
15.11.25WC
Switzerland4
Sweden1
L
13.10.25WC
Sweden0
Kosovo1
L
10.10.25WC
Sweden0
Switzerland2
L
08.09.25WC
Kosovo2
Sweden0
L
05.09.25WC
Slovenia2
Sweden2
D
10.06.25FI
Sweden4
Algeria3
W
Greece
31.03.26FI
Hungary0
Greece0
D
27.03.26FI
Greece0
Paraguay1
L
18.11.25WC
Belarus0
Greece0
D
15.11.25WC
Greece3
Scotland2
W
12.10.25WC
Denmark3
Greece1
L
09.10.25WC
Scotland3
Greece1
L
08.09.25WC
Greece0
Denmark3
L
05.09.25WC
Greece5
Belarus1
W
10.06.25FI
Greece4
Bulgaria0
W
07.06.25FI
Greece4
Slovakia1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this International Friendly game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.29 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sweden vs Greece?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Sweden's current form?
Sweden have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Greece been performing recently?
Greece have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sweden lead with 3 wins versus Greece's 2, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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