WON
Result: Erbil 3-1 Baghdad
DirectWinPredict โ€บ Iraq Stars Leagueโ€บ Erbil vs Baghdad
E

Erbil

Home Side
W W L W D
7W 2D 1L
VS
3-1
Iraq Stars League
B
Baghdad
Away Side
L W L L D
2W 4D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Erbil to win โ€” Tuesday, 2nd June 2026
Best Odds 1.43
Confidence 56%
Implied Prob 69.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
โšก Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 โ€” Erbil to win
1.43
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
69.9%
Based on 1.43 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-13.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
โš” Head to Head Record
5
Erbil
2
Draws
3
Baghdad
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Erbil won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
๐Ÿ“Š Key Stats Duel Comparison
Erbil
Metric
Baghdad
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheet %
0%
7-2-1
W โ€” D โ€” L
2-4-4
Win Rate Comparison
70%
20%
๐ŸŽฏ Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
E0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
E2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
E3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.9%) 1-0 (9.7%) 2-0 (9.0%)
โ–  Most likely (tip) โ–  Possible (tip) โ–  Low (tip)  ยท  โ–  Contradicts tip Poisson model ยท E=Home goals โ†“   B=Away goals โ†’
๐Ÿ“‰ Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Erbil Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Baghdad Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
๐Ÿ“ˆ Team Ratings Grades
Erbil
Overall
7.6 โ–ฒ
Scoring
6.3 โ–ฒ
Defence
7.3 โ–ฒ
Baghdad
Overall
3.2 โ€”
Scoring
4.7 โ€”
Defence
4.0 โ€”
๐Ÿ”€ Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
๐Ÿงฎ Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake Amount
โ€”
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
๐Ÿ“œ Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
31.01.26SL
Baghdad3
Erbil0
26.05.24SL
Baghdad1
Erbil3
29.02.24SL
Erbil4
Baghdad1
15.02.22SL
Baghdad1
Erbil1
26.09.21SL
Erbil1
Baghdad2
24.02.21SL
Erbil2
Baghdad2
26.10.20SL
Baghdad0
Erbil2
17.06.19SL
Baghdad2
Erbil0
18.12.18SL
Erbil2
Baghdad0
06.12.16SL
Baghdad1
Erbil2
Recent Form
Erbil
28.05.26SL
Zakho1
Erbil2
W
20.05.26SL
Al Shorta0
Erbil2
W
16.05.26SL
Erbil0
Newroz1
L
11.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Erbil4
W
06.05.26SL
Erbil2
Al Kahraba2
D
02.05.26SL
Erbil1
Al Karkh0
W
27.04.26SL
Al Talaba2
Erbil3
W
23.04.26SL
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
Erbil1
D
18.04.26SL
Erbil2
Al-Qassim0
W
14.04.26SL
Al Naft0
Erbil2
W
Baghdad
27.05.26SL
Baghdad1
Al Gharraf3
L
19.05.26SL
Diyala1
Baghdad4
W
15.05.26SL
Baghdad0
Al Kahraba1
L
11.05.26SL
Al Karkh2
Baghdad1
L
07.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Baghdad1
D
02.05.26SL
Baghdad2
Al-Qassim2
D
26.04.26SL
Baghdad2
Al Zawraa2
D
21.04.26SL
Al Minaa4
Baghdad0
L
17.04.26SL
Al Mosul1
Baghdad1
D
12.04.26SL
Baghdad2
Duhok1
W
๐Ÿ“ Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Iraq Stars League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.43 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

โ“ Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Erbil vs Baghdad?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Erbil to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Erbil's current form?
Erbil have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baghdad been performing recently?
Baghdad have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Erbil lead with 5 wins versus Baghdad's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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