WON
Result: Gabala 2-0 Mingachevir
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan Cup Gabala vs Mingachevir
G

Gabala

Home Side
W W D L D
3W 2D 5L
VS
2-0
Azerbaijan Cup
M
Mingachevir
Away Side
W W L W L
6W 1D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Gabala to win — Thursday, 28th May 2026
Best Odds 1.33
Confidence 57%
Implied Prob 75.2%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Gabala to win
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
75.2%
Based on 1.33 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-18.2%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Gabala
0
Draws
0
Mingachevir
4
Meetings
25%
BTTS Rate
25%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Gabala won 4 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Gabala
Metric
Mingachevir
1.2
Goals For / Game
2.6
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.2
10%
Clean Sheet %
10%
3-2-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate Comparison
30%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
G0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.4%
0-2 8.2%
0-3 5.3%
0-4 2.6%
0-5 1.0%
G1
1-0 5.1%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 6.4%
1-4 3.1%
1-5 1.2%
G2
2-0 3.1%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.9%
2-5 0.7%
G3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
G4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
G5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (6.0%) 1-0 (5.1%) 2-0 (3.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · G=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Gabala Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Mingachevir Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Gabala
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.7
Mingachevir
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 16%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
29.10.25CUP
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
28.03.251L
Gabala2
Mingachevir0
24.12.241L
Mingachevir0
Gabala2
26.09.241L
Gabala2
Mingachevir0
Recent Form
Gabala
21.05.26PL
Gabala3
Shamakhi1
W
15.05.26PL
Karvan1
Gabala2
W
09.05.26PL
Gabala1
Qarabag1
D
03.05.26PL
Zira1
Gabala0
L
25.04.26PL
Gabala1
Araz1
D
19.04.26PL
Sumqayit1
Gabala0
L
12.04.26PL
Gabala0
Imisli FK1
L
05.04.26PL
Kapaz0
Gabala2
W
21.03.26PL
Turan Tovuz3
Gabala2
L
15.03.26PL
Gabala1
Neftci Baku3
L
Mingachevir
22.05.261L
Mingachevir4
Sabail1
W
15.05.261L
Mingachevir3
MOIK Baku1
W
05.05.261L
Sahdag Qusar2
Mingachevir0
L
29.04.261L
Mingachevir7
Zaqatala1
W
22.04.261L
Cebrayil2
Mingachevir1
L
16.04.261L
Mingachevir2
Difai Agsu1
W
09.04.261L
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
03.04.261L
Mingachevir5
Safa Baku2
W
18.03.261L
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
D
12.03.261L
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan Cup game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.33 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Gabala vs Mingachevir?
Our selection is 1 — Gabala to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Gabala's current form?
Gabala have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mingachevir been performing recently?
Mingachevir have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Gabala lead with 4 wins versus Mingachevir's 0, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
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