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Result: Bournemouth 1-1 Man City
DirectWinPredict Premier League Bournemouth vs Man City
B

Bournemouth

Home Side
W W D W W
4W 6D 0L
VS
1-1
Premier League
M
Man City
Away Side
W W W D W
9W 1D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Tuesday, 19th May 2026
Best Odds 1.41
Confidence 81%
Implied Prob 70.9%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.41
Man City Clean Sheet70%
Implied Prob
70.9%
Based on 1.41 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+10.1%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
34.7%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Bournemouth
0
Draws
9
Man City
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
90%
Over 2.5
3.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Bournemouth
Metric
Man City
1.3
Goals For / Game
2.4
0.7
Goals Against / Game
0.5
50%
Clean Sheet %
70%
4-6-0
W — D — L
9-1-0
Win Rate Comparison
40%
90%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
B0
0-0 8.6%
0-1 13.4%
0-2 10.4%
0-3 5.4%
0-4 2.1%
0-5 0.6%
B1
1-0 7.8%
1-1 12.0%
1-2 9.3%
1-3 4.8%
1-4 1.9%
1-5 0.6%
B2
2-0 3.5%
2-1 5.4%
2-2 4.2%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.3%
B3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 1.3%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-1 (13.4%) 1-1 (12.0%) 0-2 (10.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Bournemouth
Overall
5.8
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.7
Man City
Overall
9.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
8.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 33%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 22%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
02.11.25PL
Manchester City3
Bournemouth1
20.05.25PL
Manchester City3
Bournemouth1
30.03.25FAC
Bournemouth1
Manchester City2
02.11.24PL
Bournemouth2
Manchester City1
24.02.24PL
Bournemouth0
Manchester City1
04.11.23PL
Manchester City6
Bournemouth1
25.02.23PL
Bournemouth1
Manchester City4
13.08.22PL
Manchester City4
Bournemouth0
24.09.20EFL
Manchester City2
Bournemouth1
15.07.20PL
Manchester City2
Bournemouth1
Recent Form
Bournemouth
09.05.26PL
Fulham0
Bournemouth1
W
03.05.26PL
Bournemouth3
Crystal Palace0
W
22.04.26PL
Bournemouth2
Leeds2
D
18.04.26PL
Newcastle1
Bournemouth2
W
11.04.26PL
Arsenal1
Bournemouth2
W
20.03.26PL
Bournemouth2
Manchester Utd2
D
14.03.26PL
Burnley0
Bournemouth0
D
03.03.26PL
Bournemouth0
Brentford0
D
28.02.26PL
Bournemouth1
Sunderland1
D
21.02.26PL
West Ham0
Bournemouth0
D
Man City
16.05.26FAC
Chelsea0
Manchester City1
W
13.05.26PL
Manchester City3
Crystal Palace0
W
09.05.26PL
Manchester City3
Brentford0
W
04.05.26PL
Everton3
Manchester City3
D
25.04.26FAC
Manchester City2
Southampton1
W
22.04.26PL
Burnley0
Manchester City1
W
19.04.26PL
Manchester City2
Arsenal1
W
12.04.26PL
Chelsea0
Manchester City3
W
04.04.26FAC
Manchester City4
Liverpool0
W
22.03.26EFL
Arsenal0
Manchester City2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.41 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bournemouth vs Man City?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 81%.
What is Bournemouth's current form?
Bournemouth have won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Man City been performing recently?
Man City have recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bournemouth lead with 1 wins versus Man City's 9, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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