WON
Result: Grotta 1-3 Afturelding
DirectWinPredict Iceland Division 1 Grotta vs Afturelding
G

Grotta

Home Side
W W L L W
5W 0D 5L
VS
1-3
Iceland Division 1
A
Afturelding
Away Side
W W D L W
6W 1D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Monday, 18th May 2026
Best Odds 1.41
Confidence 76%
Implied Prob 70.9%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
70.9%
Based on 1.41 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+5.1%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
17.5%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Grotta
4
Draws
4
Afturelding
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.9
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Grotta
Metric
Afturelding
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.5
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.2
40%
Clean Sheet %
30%
5-0-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate Comparison
50%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
G0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 4.5%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 3.0%
0-4 1.5%
0-5 0.6%
G1
1-0 4.0%
1-1 8.1%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 5.4%
1-4 2.7%
1-5 1.1%
G2
2-0 3.6%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 7.3%
2-3 4.8%
2-4 2.4%
2-5 1.0%
G3
3-0 2.2%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 2.9%
3-4 1.5%
3-5 0.6%
G4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.3%
G5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (8.1%) 1-2 (8.1%) 2-1 (7.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · G=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Grotta
Overall
5.0
Scoring
4.7
Defence
5.0
Afturelding
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.3
Defence
2.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 37%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
06.02.26CUP
Afturelding2
Grotta0
18.07.24D1
Grotta1
Afturelding4
03.05.24D1
Afturelding1
Grotta1
02.08.23D1
Afturelding1
Grotta1
26.05.23D1
Grotta2
Afturelding3
25.02.23CUP
Grotta1
Afturelding1
12.08.22D1
Grotta4
Afturelding2
03.06.22D1
Afturelding2
Grotta2
15.09.21D1
Grotta8
Afturelding0
01.07.21D1
Afturelding2
Grotta1
Recent Form
Grotta
14.05.26CUP
Vestri0
Grotta4
W
09.05.26D1
Aegir0
Grotta1
W
01.05.26D1
Grotta1
Leiknir2
L
25.04.26D1
Kopavogur4
Grotta1
L
06.04.26CUP
Grotta1
Alftanes0
W
26.03.26CUP
Grotta2
Ulfarnir1
W
14.03.26CUP
Throttur Vogar0
Grotta2
W
14.02.26CUP
Thor Akureyri3
Grotta1
L
11.02.26CUP
Grotta1
Akranes3
L
06.02.26CUP
Afturelding2
Grotta0
L
Afturelding
13.05.26CUP
Afturelding5
Njardvik2
W
08.05.26D1
Leiknir0
Afturelding3
W
01.05.26D1
Afturelding0
Volsungur0
D
24.04.26D1
Afturelding4
IR Reykjavik7
L
03.04.26CUP
Afturelding6
Ymir1
W
29.03.26CUP
IR Reykjavik2
Afturelding3
W
25.02.26CUP
Afturelding0
Thor Akureyri5
L
21.02.26CUP
Valur4
Afturelding0
L
06.02.26CUP
Afturelding2
Grotta0
W
29.01.26CUP
Akranes1
Afturelding2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Iceland Division 1 game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.41 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Grotta vs Afturelding?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is Grotta's current form?
Grotta have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Afturelding been performing recently?
Afturelding have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Grotta lead with 2 wins versus Afturelding's 4, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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