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Result: Lille 0-2 Auxerre
DirectWinPredict Ligue 1 Lille vs Auxerre
L

Lille

Home Side
W D W D W
6W 2D 2L
VS
0-2
Ligue 1
A
Auxerre
Away Side
W W L D D
3W 5D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Lille to win — Sunday, 17th May 2026
Best Odds 1.42
Confidence 53%
Implied Prob 70.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
5
Lille
4
Draws
1
Auxerre
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.3
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Lille won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Lille
Metric
Auxerre
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.1
50%
Clean Sheet %
30%
6-2-2
W — D — L
3-5-2
Win Rate Comparison
60%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
L0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 10.5%
0-2 5.5%
0-3 1.9%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 12.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.5%) 2-1 (8.2%) 2-0 (7.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Lille Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Auxerre Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Lille
Overall
6.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
8.0
Auxerre
Overall
4.5
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
14.12.25L1
Auxerre3
Lille4
20.04.25L1
Lille3
Auxerre1
10.01.25L1
Auxerre0
Lille0
22.04.23L1
Auxerre1
Lille1
07.08.22L1
Lille4
Auxerre1
18.12.21CDF
Lille3
Auxerre1
29.10.13COU
Lille0
Auxerre (aet)1
03.03.12L1
Lille2
Auxerre2
15.10.11L1
Auxerre1
Lille3
06.02.11L1
Auxerre1
Lille1
Recent Form
Lille
10.05.26L1
Monaco0
Lille1
W
03.05.26L1
Lille1
Le Havre1
D
26.04.26L1
Paris FC0
Lille1
W
18.04.26L1
Lille0
Nice0
D
12.04.26L1
Toulouse0
Lille4
W
04.04.26L1
Lille3
Lens0
W
22.03.26L1
Marseille1
Lille2
W
19.03.26EL
Aston Villa2
Lille0
L
15.03.26L1
Rennes1
Lille2
W
12.03.26EL
Lille0
Aston Villa1
L
Auxerre
10.05.26L1
Auxerre2
Nice1
W
03.05.26L1
Auxerre3
Angers1
W
25.04.26L1
Lyon3
Auxerre2
L
19.04.26L1
Monaco2
Auxerre2
D
11.04.26L1
Auxerre0
Nantes0
D
05.04.26L1
Le Havre1
Auxerre1
D
21.03.26L1
Auxerre3
Brest0
W
13.03.26L1
Marseille1
Auxerre0
L
07.03.26L1
Auxerre0
Strasbourg0
D
01.03.26L1
Lorient2
Auxerre2
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Ligue 1 game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.42 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lille vs Auxerre?
Our selection is 1 — Lille to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Lille's current form?
Lille have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Auxerre been performing recently?
Auxerre have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lille lead with 5 wins versus Auxerre's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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