WON
Result: Como 1-0 Parma
DirectWinPredict Serie A Como vs Parma
C

Como

Home Side
W D W L L
5W 2D 3L
VS
1-0
Serie A
P
Parma
Away Side
L L W W D
2W 4D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Como to win — Sunday, 17th May 2026
Best Odds 1.34
Confidence 42%
Implied Prob 74.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
2
Como
5
Draws
3
Parma
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
2.4
Avg Goals
Against Pick Como won 2 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Como
Metric
Parma
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
50%
Clean Sheet %
30%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate Comparison
50%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
C0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
C1
1-0 12.5%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.5%) 2-0 (10.0%) 2-1 (9.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Como Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Parma Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Como
Overall
5.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.3
Parma
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
25.10.25SA
Parma0
Como0
03.05.25SA
Parma0
Como1
19.10.24SA
Como1
Parma1
24.02.24SB
Como1
Parma1
20.10.23SB
Parma2
Como1
18.03.23SB
Como2
Parma0
29.10.22SB
Parma1
Como0
06.04.22SB
Parma4
Como3
28.11.21SB
Como1
Parma1
09.02.03SA
Como2
Parma2
Recent Form
Como
10.05.26SA
Verona0
Como1
W
02.05.26SA
Como0
Napoli0
D
26.04.26SA
Genoa0
Como2
W
21.04.26COP
Inter3
Como2
L
17.04.26SA
Sassuolo2
Como1
L
12.04.26SA
Como3
Inter4
L
06.04.26SA
Udinese0
Como0
D
22.03.26SA
Como5
Pisa0
W
15.03.26SA
Como2
AS Roma1
W
07.03.26SA
Cagliari1
Como2
W
Parma
10.05.26SA
Parma2
AS Roma3
L
03.05.26SA
Inter2
Parma0
L
25.04.26SA
Parma1
Pisa0
W
18.04.26SA
Udinese0
Parma1
W
12.04.26SA
Parma1
Napoli1
D
04.04.26SA
Lazio1
Parma1
D
21.03.26SA
Parma0
Cremonese2
L
13.03.26SA
Torino4
Parma1
L
08.03.26SA
Fiorentina0
Parma0
D
27.02.26SA
Parma1
Cagliari1
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Serie A game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Como vs Parma?
Our selection is 1 — Como to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 42%.
What is Como's current form?
Como have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Parma been performing recently?
Parma have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Como lead with 2 wins versus Parma's 3, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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