WON

Result: Al Ahli SC 3-0 Al Kholood

Al Ahli SC

Home Side

W W W L W

8W 1D 1L

3-0

Saudi Professional League

Al Kholood

Away Side

D L D D W

2W 4D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Al Ahli SC to win — Saturday, 16th May 2026

Best Odds 1.23

Confidence 67%

Implied Prob 81.3%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Al Ahli SC to win

1.23

Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

81.3%

Based on 1.23 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-14.3%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Al Ahli SC

Draws

Al Kholood

Meetings

40%

BTTS Rate

40%

Over 2.5

2.2

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Al Ahli SC won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Al Ahli SC

Metric

Al Kholood

1.9

Goals For / Game

1.1

0.7

Goals Against / Game

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

8-1-1

W — D — L

2-4-4

Win Rate Comparison

80%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.8%

0-1 5.2%

0-2 2.3%

0-3 0.7%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 11.3%

1-1 10.2%

1-2 4.6%

1-3 1.4%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 11.0%

2-1 9.9%

2-2 4.5%

2-3 1.3%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 7.2%

3-1 6.4%

3-2 2.9%

3-3 0.9%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 3.5%

4-1 3.1%

4-2 1.4%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.4%

5-1 1.2%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.3%) 2-0 (11.0%) 2-1 (9.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Al Ahli SC Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Al Kholood Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Al Ahli SC

Overall

8.3 —

Scoring

6.3 —

Defence

7.7 —

Al Kholood

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

3.7 —

Defence

3.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 6%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 42%

Home Win & Under 2.5 22%

Draw & Over 2.5 13%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 6%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

17.01.26SPL

Al Kholood0

Al Ahli SC1

17.05.25SPL

Al Ahli SC4

Al Kholood1

15.01.25SPL

Al Kholood1

Al Ahli SC0

07.02.23DIV

Al Kholood1

Al Ahli SC2

05.09.22DIV

Al Ahli SC1

Al Kholood0

Recent Form

Al Ahli SC

11.05.26SPL

Al Taawon1

Al Ahli SC2

06.05.26SPL

Al Ahli SC3

Al Fateh1

03.05.26SPL

Al Ahli SC4

Al Okhdood0

29.04.26SPL

Al Nassr2

Al Ahli SC0

25.04.26CL

Al Ahli SC1

Machida0

20.04.26CL

Vissel Kobe1

Al Ahli SC2

17.04.26CL

Al Ahli SC2

Johor DT1

13.04.26CL

Al Ahli SC1

Al-Duhail0

08.04.26SPL

Al Fayha1

Al Ahli SC1

04.04.26SPL

Al Ahli SC3

Damac0

Al Kholood

12.05.26SPL

Al Kholood0

Al Okhdood0

08.05.26KC

Al Kholood1

Al Hilal2

04.05.26SPL

Al Ittihad0

Al Kholood0

30.04.26SPL

Al Kholood1

Al Fayha1

11.04.26SPL

Al Taawon1

Al Kholood2

08.04.26SPL

Al Hilal6

Al Kholood0

03.04.26SPL

Al Kholood2

Al Khaleej2

18.03.26KC

Al Kholood3

Al Ittihad2

12.03.26SPL

Al Hazem2

Al Kholood1

07.03.26SPL

Al Kholood1

Al Qadsiah4

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Saudi Professional League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.23 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Al Ahli SC vs Al Kholood?

Our selection is 1 — Al Ahli SC to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 67%.

What is Al Ahli SC's current form?

Al Ahli SC have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.

How has Al Kholood been performing recently?

Al Kholood have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Al Ahli SC lead with 4 wins versus Al Kholood's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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