WON

Result: Olimpia Asuncion 3-2 Recoleta

Olimpia Asuncion

Home Side

L W D L L

4W 2D 4L

3-2

Paraguay Copa de Primera

Recoleta

Away Side

L D W D L

3W 4D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Olimpia Asuncion to win — Friday, 15th May 2026

Best Odds 1.36

Confidence 47%

Implied Prob 73.5%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Olimpia Asuncion to win

1.36

Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

73.5%

Based on 1.36 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-26.5%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Olimpia Asuncion

Draws

Recoleta

Meetings

50%

BTTS Rate

38%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Neutral Data Olimpia Asuncion won 4 of the last 8 meetings (3 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Olimpia Asuncion

Metric

Recoleta

1.2

Goals For / Game

1.8

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.3

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

4-2-4

W — D — L

3-4-3

Win Rate Comparison

40%

30%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 6.4%

0-1 9.6%

0-2 7.2%

0-3 3.6%

0-4 1.4%

0-5 0.4%

1-0 8.0%

1-1 12.0%

1-2 9.0%

1-3 4.5%

1-4 1.7%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 5.0%

2-1 7.5%

2-2 5.6%

2-3 2.8%

2-4 1.1%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 2.1%

3-1 3.1%

3-2 2.3%

3-3 1.2%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 0.7%

4-1 1.0%

4-2 0.7%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.2%

5-1 0.2%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (8.0%) 2-1 (7.5%) 2-0 (5.0%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · O=Home goals ↓ R=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Olimpia Asuncion Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Recoleta Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Olimpia Asuncion

Overall

4.6 ▲

Scoring

4.0 ▲

Defence

6.0 ▲

Recoleta

Overall

4.2 ▲

Scoring

6.0 ▲

Defence

5.7 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%

Home Win & BTTS No 18%

Draw & BTTS Yes 17%

Draw & BTTS No 14%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%

Away Win & BTTS No 14%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 22%

Home Win & Under 2.5 18%

Draw & Over 2.5 17%

Draw & Under 2.5 14%

Away Win & Over 2.5 17%

Away Win & Under 2.5 14%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

14.03.26PD

Recoleta0

Olimpia Asuncion1

10.10.25PD

Recoleta1

Olimpia Asuncion0

31.07.25PD

Olimpia Asuncion1

Recoleta0

01.06.25PD

Olimpia Asuncion0

Recoleta0

30.03.25PD

Recoleta1

Olimpia Asuncion1

11.10.02PD

Recoleta1

Olimpia Asuncion2

09.08.02PD

Olimpia Asuncion3

Recoleta1

22.03.02PD

Olimpia Asuncion2

Recoleta2

Recent Form

Olimpia Asuncion

10.05.26PD

San Lorenzo1

Olimpia Asuncion0

07.05.26COP

Barracas Central1

Olimpia Asuncion2

03.05.26PD

Olimpia Asuncion1

Ameliano1

30.04.26COP

Vasco3

Olimpia Asuncion0

26.04.26PD

Libertad Asuncion3

Olimpia Asuncion2

19.04.26PD

Olimpia Asuncion3

Cerro Porteno0

16.04.26COP

Olimpia Asuncion0

Barracas Central0

12.04.26PD

Rubio Nu0

Olimpia Asuncion2

09.04.26COP

A. Italiano0

Olimpia Asuncion2

04.04.26PD

Olimpia Asuncion3

Nacional Asuncion0

Recoleta

11.05.26PD

Ameliano3

Recoleta2

06.05.26COP

Recoleta1

Santos1

03.05.26PD

Recoleta2

Cerro Porteno1

29.04.26COP

Recoleta0

Dep. Cuenca0

24.04.26PD

Nacional Asuncion2

Recoleta1

19.04.26PD

Recoleta5

2 de Mayo0

15.04.26COP

Santos1

Recoleta1

11.04.26PD

Sp. Luqueno2

Recoleta1

08.04.26COP

Recoleta1

San Lorenzo1

05.04.26PD

Recoleta4

San Lorenzo2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Paraguay Copa de Primera game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.36 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Olimpia Asuncion vs Recoleta?

Our selection is 1 — Olimpia Asuncion to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 47%.

What is Olimpia Asuncion's current form?

Olimpia Asuncion have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.

How has Recoleta been performing recently?

Recoleta have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Olimpia Asuncion lead with 4 wins versus Recoleta's 1, with 3 draws across 8 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.

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