WON

Result: Garliava 3-0 Kauno Zalgiris 2

Garliava

Home Side

W W W L D

4W 2D 4L

3-0

Lithuania 1 Lyga

Kauno Zalgiris 2

Away Side

1W 0D 9L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Garliava to win — Friday, 15th May 2026

Best Odds 1.28

Confidence 34%

Implied Prob 78.1%

50%

30%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Garliava

Draws

Kauno Zalgiris 2

Meetings

50%

BTTS Rate

75%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Against Pick Garliava won 0 of the last 4 meetings (3 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Garliava

Metric

Kauno Zalgiris 2

1.3

Goals For / Game

0.7

1.4

Goals Against / Game

20%

Clean Sheet %

10%

4-2-4

W — D — L

1-0-9

Win Rate Comparison

40%

10%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 6.7%

0-1 7.1%

0-2 3.7%

0-3 1.3%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 11.1%

1-1 11.6%

1-2 6.1%

1-3 2.1%

1-4 0.6%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 9.2%

2-1 9.6%

2-2 5.0%

2-3 1.8%

2-4 0.5%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.0%

3-1 5.3%

3-2 2.8%

3-3 1.0%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 2.1%

4-1 2.2%

4-2 1.1%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 0.7%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.1%) 2-1 (9.6%) 2-0 (9.2%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · G=Home goals ↓ K=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Garliava Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Kauno Zalgiris 2 Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Garliava

Overall

4.6 ▼

Scoring

4.3 ▼

Defence

5.3 ▼

Kauno Zalgiris 2

Overall

1.0 —

Scoring

2.3 —

Defence

3.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%

Home Win & BTTS No 40%

Draw & BTTS Yes 7%

Draw & BTTS No 10%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%

Away Win & BTTS No 10%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 37%

Home Win & Under 2.5 30%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 8%

Away Win & Over 2.5 9%

Away Win & Under 2.5 7%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

08.11.24IL

Garliava0

Kauno Zalgiris 24

21.06.24IL

Kauno Zalgiris 22

Garliava2

13.10.23IL

Garliava0

Kauno Zalgiris 20

29.05.23IL

Kauno Zalgiris 22

Garliava2

Recent Form

Garliava

09.05.26IL

BFA Vilnius1

Garliava2

02.05.26IL

Garliava3

Ekranas1

29.04.26CUP

AFK Vilnius0

Garliava3

24.04.26IL

Babrungas1

Garliava0

18.04.26IL

Garliava2

BE1 NFA2

04.04.26IL

Tauras Taurage2

Garliava0

21.03.26IL

Garliava1

Hegelmann Litauen 21

17.03.26IL

Garliava0

Neptunas3

14.03.26IL

Garliava2

Jonava0

27.05.25CUP

Garliava0

FK Panevezys3

Kauno Zalgiris 2

08.05.26IL

Ekranas1

Kauno Zalgiris 20

02.05.26IL

Kauno Zalgiris 20

BE1 NFA1

24.04.26IL

Hegelmann Litauen 22

Kauno Zalgiris 20

19.04.26IL

Kauno Zalgiris 20

FK Minija4

12.04.26IL

Kauno Zalgiris 20

Zalgiris 21

04.04.26IL

Jonava3

Kauno Zalgiris 21

18.03.26IL

Atmosfera2

Kauno Zalgiris 21

13.03.26IL

Kauno Zalgiris 21

Tauras Taurage2

09.11.25IL

Nevezis Kedainiai4

Kauno Zalgiris 23

31.10.25IL

Kauno Zalgiris 20

Tauras Taurage1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Lithuania 1 Lyga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.28 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Garliava vs Kauno Zalgiris 2?

Our selection is 1 — Garliava to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 34%.

What is Garliava's current form?

Garliava have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.

How has Kauno Zalgiris 2 been performing recently?

Kauno Zalgiris 2 have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Garliava lead with 0 wins versus Kauno Zalgiris 2's 1, with 3 draws across 4 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.

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