WON
Result: FK Liepaja 4-1 Ogre United
DirectWinPredict Latvia Virsliga FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
F

FK Liepaja

Home Side
L L D W D
2W 3D 5L
VS
4-1
Latvia Virsliga
O
Ogre United
Away Side
L L L L D
0W 3D 7L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing FK Liepaja to win — Tuesday, 12th May 2026
Best Odds 1.34
Confidence 49%
Implied Prob 74.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
1
FK Liepaja
0
Draws
0
Ogre United
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
0%
Over 2.5
1
Avg Goals
Supports Pick FK Liepaja won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
FK Liepaja
Metric
Ogre United
0.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2.3
10%
Clean Sheet %
0%
2-3-5
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate Comparison
20%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
F0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 7.6%
0-2 4.8%
0-3 2.0%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
F1
1-0 9.4%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 3.1%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
F3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (9.4%) 2-1 (9.1%) 2-0 (7.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓   O=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
FK Liepaja Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Ogre United Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
FK Liepaja
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.7
Ogre United
Overall
0.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 36%
Draw & BTTS No 24%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 27%
Draw & Under 2.5 33%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
Recent Form
FK Liepaja
08.05.26VIR
RFS5
FK Liepaja0
L
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
L
28.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Grobina1
D
23.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
FK Liepaja2
W
17.04.26VIR
Tukums 20002
FK Liepaja2
D
12.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Jelgava1
D
08.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Auda2
L
03.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
FK Liepaja0
L
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
L
Ogre United
07.05.26VIR
Tukums 20006
Ogre United1
L
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
L
27.04.26VIR
Ogre United0
Jelgava1
L
22.04.26VIR
Riga FC4
Ogre United0
L
17.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Auda1
D
13.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Grobina1
D
07.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
Ogre United1
L
03.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Super Nova2
L
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
L
15.03.26VIR
Ogre United1
Tukums 20001
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Latvia Virsliga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?
Our selection is 1 — FK Liepaja to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 49%.
What is FK Liepaja's current form?
FK Liepaja have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ogre United been performing recently?
Ogre United have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FK Liepaja lead with 1 wins versus Ogre United's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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