WON

Result: Riga Mariners 1-0 FK Smiltene

Riga Mariners

Home Side

D W D W D

4W 5D 1L

1-0

Latvia Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene

Away Side

L L D L D

0W 5D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Riga Mariners to win — Saturday, 9th May 2026

Best Odds 1.21

Confidence 55%

Implied Prob 82.6%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Riga Mariners to win

1.21

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes80%

Implied Prob

82.6%

Based on 1.21 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-27.6%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Riga Mariners

Draws

FK Smiltene

Meetings

100%

BTTS Rate

100%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Riga Mariners won 2 of the last 2 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Riga Mariners

Metric

FK Smiltene

1.7

Goals For / Game

1.3

1.5

Goals Against / Game

2.9

10%

Clean Sheet %

10%

4-5-1

W — D — L

0-5-5

Win Rate Comparison

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 2.5%

0-1 3.5%

0-2 2.4%

0-3 1.1%

0-4 0.4%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 5.7%

1-1 8.0%

1-2 5.6%

1-3 2.6%

1-4 0.9%

1-5 0.3%

2-0 6.5%

2-1 9.2%

2-2 6.4%

2-3 3.0%

2-4 1.1%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 5.0%

3-1 7.0%

3-2 4.9%

3-3 2.3%

3-4 0.8%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 2.9%

4-1 4.0%

4-2 2.8%

4-3 1.3%

4-4 0.5%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.3%

5-1 1.9%

5-2 1.3%

5-3 0.6%

5-4 0.2%

5-5 0.1%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.2%) 3-1 (7.0%) 2-0 (6.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓ F=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Riga Mariners Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

FK Smiltene Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Riga Mariners

Overall

5.5 —

Scoring

5.7 —

Defence

5.0 —

FK Smiltene

Overall

1.5 —

Scoring

4.3 —

Defence

0.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%

Home Win & BTTS No 9%

Draw & BTTS Yes 45%

Draw & BTTS No 11%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 31%

Home Win & Under 2.5 13%

Draw & Over 2.5 39%

Draw & Under 2.5 17%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

25.10.25NL

FK Smiltene1

Riga Mariners3

28.06.25NL

Riga Mariners3

FK Smiltene1

Recent Form

Riga Mariners

02.05.26NL

Rezekne2

Riga Mariners2

25.04.26NL

RFS 21

Riga Mariners2

19.04.26NL

Riga Mariners2

Riga FC 22

11.04.26NL

Tukums 2000 21

Riga Mariners3

04.04.26NL

Riga Mariners1

Super Nova 21

21.03.26NL

JFK Ventspils0

Riga Mariners1

27.02.26CF

Riga Mariners1

Tammeka1

14.02.26CF

Harju JK Laagri4

Riga Mariners1

07.02.26CF

Maardu1

Riga Mariners1

17.01.26CF

Elva2

Riga Mariners3

FK Smiltene

03.05.26NL

FK Smiltene2

Alberts JDFS3

25.04.26NL

Metta8

FK Smiltene0

18.04.26NL

FK Smiltene0

Leevon PPK0

12.04.26NL

Valmiera4

FK Smiltene0

28.03.26NL

FK Smiltene3

JFK Ventspils3

22.03.26NL

RFS 23

FK Smiltene3

14.02.26CF

Elva2

FK Smiltene1

08.11.25NL

FK Smiltene1

RFS 21

01.11.25NL

FK Smiltene2

Rezekne2

25.10.25NL

FK Smiltene1

Riga Mariners3

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Latvia Nakotnes liga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.21 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Riga Mariners vs FK Smiltene?

Our selection is 1 — Riga Mariners to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is Riga Mariners's current form?

Riga Mariners have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.

How has FK Smiltene been performing recently?

FK Smiltene have recorded 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Riga Mariners lead with 2 wins versus FK Smiltene's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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