WON

Result: RB Leipzig 2-1 Pauli

RB Leipzig

Home Side

L W W W W

7W 1D 2L

2-1

Bundesliga

Pauli

Away Side

L L D L D

2W 3D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing RB Leipzig to win — Saturday, 9th May 2026

Best Odds 1.34

Confidence 53%

Implied Prob 74.6%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — RB Leipzig to win

1.34

Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

74.6%

Based on 1.34 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-21.6%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

RB Leipzig

Draws

Pauli

Meetings

38%

BTTS Rate

25%

Over 2.5

2.3

Avg Goals

Against Pick RB Leipzig won 3 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

RB Leipzig

Metric

Pauli

2.1

Goals For / Game

0.7

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.6

20%

Clean Sheet %

20%

7-1-2

W — D — L

2-3-5

Win Rate Comparison

70%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 5.8%

0-2 2.7%

0-3 0.9%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 11.3%

1-1 10.7%

1-2 5.1%

1-3 1.6%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.4%

2-1 9.9%

2-2 4.7%

2-3 1.5%

2-4 0.4%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 6.4%

3-1 6.1%

3-2 2.9%

3-3 0.9%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 3.0%

4-1 2.8%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.1%

5-1 1.0%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.3%) 2-0 (10.4%) 2-1 (9.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓ P=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

RB Leipzig Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Pauli Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

RB Leipzig

Overall

7.3 ▼

Scoring

7.0 ▼

Defence

6.0 ▼

Pauli

Overall

2.9 ▲

Scoring

2.3 ▲

Defence

4.7 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 11%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 7%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 38%

Home Win & Under 2.5 26%

Draw & Over 2.5 11%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 11%

Away Win & Under 2.5 7%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

27.01.26BUN

St. Pauli1

RB Leipzig1

09.02.25BUN

RB Leipzig2

St. Pauli0

29.10.24POK

RB Leipzig4

St. Pauli2

22.09.24BUN

St. Pauli0

RB Leipzig0

12.02.162BUN

St. Pauli1

RB Leipzig0

23.08.152BUN

RB Leipzig0

St. Pauli1

03.05.152BUN

St. Pauli1

RB Leipzig0

23.11.142BUN

RB Leipzig4

St. Pauli1

Recent Form

RB Leipzig

02.05.26BUN

Bayer Leverkusen4

RB Leipzig1

24.04.26BUN

RB Leipzig3

Union Berlin1

18.04.26BUN

Eintracht Frankfurt1

RB Leipzig3

11.04.26BUN

RB Leipzig1

B. Monchengladbach0

04.04.26BUN

Werder Bremen1

RB Leipzig2

20.03.26BUN

RB Leipzig5

Hoffenheim0

15.03.26BUN

Stuttgart1

RB Leipzig0

07.03.26BUN

RB Leipzig2

Augsburg1

01.03.26BUN

Hamburger SV1

RB Leipzig2

21.02.26BUN

RB Leipzig2

Dortmund2

Pauli

03.05.26BUN

St. Pauli1

Mainz2

25.04.26BUN

Heidenheim2

St. Pauli0

17.04.26BUN

St. Pauli1

FC Koln1

11.04.26BUN

St. Pauli0

Bayern Munich5

05.04.26BUN

Union Berlin1

St. Pauli1

22.03.26BUN

St. Pauli1

Freiburg2

13.03.26BUN

B. Monchengladbach2

St. Pauli0

08.03.26BUN

St. Pauli0

Eintracht Frankfurt0

28.02.26BUN

Hoffenheim0

St. Pauli1

22.02.26BUN

St. Pauli2

Werder Bremen1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Bundesliga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for RB Leipzig vs Pauli?

Our selection is 1 — RB Leipzig to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 53%.

What is RB Leipzig's current form?

RB Leipzig have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Pauli been performing recently?

Pauli have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

RB Leipzig lead with 3 wins versus Pauli's 3, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 38%.

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