WON

Result: Man City 3-0 Brentford

Man City

Home Side

D W W W W

6W 2D 2L

3-0

Premier League

Brentford

Away Side

W L D D D

2W 5D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Man City to win — Saturday, 9th May 2026

Best Odds 1.37

Confidence 58%

Implied Prob 73%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Man City to win

1.37

Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

73%

Based on 1.37 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-15%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Man City

Draws

Brentford

Meetings

40%

BTTS Rate

40%

Over 2.5

2.2

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Man City won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Man City

Metric

Brentford

1.9

Goals For / Game

1.4

1.1

Goals Against / Game

1.4

40%

Clean Sheet %

40%

6-2-2

W — D — L

2-5-3

Win Rate Comparison

60%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.5%

0-1 6.9%

0-2 4.3%

0-3 1.8%

0-4 0.6%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 9.1%

1-1 11.4%

1-2 7.1%

1-3 3.0%

1-4 0.9%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 7.5%

2-1 9.4%

2-2 5.9%

2-3 2.4%

2-4 0.8%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.1%

3-1 5.2%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.3%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 1.7%

4-1 2.1%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.6%

5-1 0.7%

5-2 0.4%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.4%) 1-0 (9.1%) 2-0 (7.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓ B=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Man City Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Brentford Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Man City

Overall

6.6 ▼

Scoring

6.3 ▼

Defence

6.3 ▼

Brentford

Overall

3.5 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 15%

Draw & BTTS No 15%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%

Away Win & BTTS No 9%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 34%

Home Win & Under 2.5 18%

Draw & Over 2.5 20%

Draw & Under 2.5 11%

Away Win & Over 2.5 12%

Away Win & Under 2.5 6%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

17.12.25EFL

Manchester City2

Brentford0

05.10.25PL

Brentford0

Manchester City1

14.01.25PL

Brentford2

Manchester City2

14.09.24PL

Manchester City2

Brentford1

20.02.24PL

Manchester City1

Brentford0

05.02.24PL

Brentford1

Manchester City3

28.05.23PL

Brentford1

Manchester City0

12.11.22PL

Manchester City1

Brentford2

09.02.22PL

Manchester City2

Brentford0

29.12.21PL

Brentford0

Manchester City1

Recent Form

Man City

04.05.26PL

Everton3

Manchester City3

25.04.26FAC

Manchester City2

Southampton1

22.04.26PL

Burnley0

Manchester City1

19.04.26PL

Manchester City2

Arsenal1

12.04.26PL

Chelsea0

Manchester City3

04.04.26FAC

Manchester City4

Liverpool0

22.03.26EFL

Arsenal0

Manchester City2

17.03.26CL

Manchester City1

Real Madrid2

14.03.26PL

West Ham1

Manchester City1

11.03.26CL

Real Madrid3

Manchester City0

Brentford

02.05.26PL

Brentford3

West Ham0

27.04.26PL

Manchester Utd2

Brentford1

18.04.26PL

Brentford0

Fulham0

11.04.26PL

Brentford2

Everton2

21.03.26PL

Leeds0

Brentford0

16.03.26PL

Brentford2

Wolves2

09.03.26FAC

West Ham3

Brentford2

03.03.26PL

Bournemouth0

Brentford0

28.02.26PL

Burnley3

Brentford4

21.02.26PL

Brentford0

Brighton2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.37 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Man City vs Brentford?

Our selection is 1 — Man City to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 58%.

What is Man City's current form?

Man City have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Brentford been performing recently?

Brentford have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Man City lead with 7 wins versus Brentford's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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