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Result: Aalborg 1-3 Middelfart
DirectWinPredict Denmark 1 Division Aalborg vs Middelfart
A

Aalborg

Home Side
D D W W W
4W 4D 2L
VS
1-3
Denmark 1 Division
M
Middelfart
Away Side
L L L L L
0W 0D 10L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Aalborg to win — Friday, 8th May 2026
Best Odds 1.27
Confidence 60%
Implied Prob 78.7%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
5
Aalborg
0
Draws
0
Middelfart
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Aalborg won 5 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Aalborg
Metric
Middelfart
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3.2
10%
Clean Sheet %
0%
4-4-2
W — D — L
0-0-10
Win Rate Comparison
40%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 3.0%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 7.6%
1-1 7.6%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.9%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 4.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (9.4%) 2-1 (9.4%) 3-0 (7.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Aalborg Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Middelfart Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Aalborg
Overall
5.2
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.7
Middelfart
Overall
0.0
Scoring
2.3
Defence
0.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
01.11.251D
Middelfart1
Aalborg2
14.09.251D
Aalborg4
Middelfart0
09.11.22CUP
Middelfart1
Aalborg2
20.09.17CUP
Middelfart0
Aalborg2
Recent Form
Aalborg
01.05.261D
Aalborg1
Hobro1
D
26.04.261D
Koge1
Aalborg1
D
23.04.261D
Aalborg3
B.932
W
18.04.261D
Aalborg3
Aarhus Fremad1
W
10.04.261D
Hobro0
Aalborg1
W
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
W
21.03.261D
Aalborg1
Esbjerg1
D
14.03.261D
Hobro1
Aalborg0
L
06.03.261D
Aalborg0
Aarhus Fremad1
L
27.02.261D
Aalborg3
Hillerod3
D
Middelfart
01.05.261D
Middelfart0
Aarhus Fremad1
L
26.04.261D
B.932
Middelfart1
L
22.04.261D
Aarhus Fremad5
Middelfart1
L
18.04.261D
Middelfart0
Hobro6
L
10.04.261D
Koge2
Middelfart0
L
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
L
21.03.261D
Middelfart0
Hobro1
L
13.03.261D
Lyngby4
Middelfart1
L
07.03.261D
Middelfart1
Hvidovre IF2
L
28.02.261D
Aarhus Fremad4
Middelfart1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Denmark 1 Division game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.27 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aalborg vs Middelfart?
Our selection is 1 — Aalborg to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Aalborg's current form?
Aalborg have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Middelfart been performing recently?
Middelfart have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aalborg lead with 5 wins versus Middelfart's 0, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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