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Result: Lech Poznan 1-1 Arka Gdynia

Lech Poznan

Home Side

W W W D D

6W 2D 2L

1-1

Poland Ekstraklasa

Arka Gdynia

Away Side

L L D W L

3W 3D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Lech Poznan to win — Friday, 8th May 2026

Best Odds 1.38

Confidence 48%

Implied Prob 72.5%

50%

20%

30%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Lech Poznan to win

1.38

Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

72.5%

Based on 1.38 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-24.5%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Lech Poznan

Draws

Arka Gdynia

Meetings

30%

BTTS Rate

30%

Over 2.5

1.7

Avg Goals

Against Pick Lech Poznan won 3 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Lech Poznan

Metric

Arka Gdynia

1.9

Goals For / Game

1.4

1.1

Goals Against / Game

1.9

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

6-2-2

W — D — L

3-3-4

Win Rate Comparison

60%

30%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 4.3%

0-1 5.4%

0-2 3.4%

0-3 1.4%

0-4 0.4%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 8.1%

1-1 10.2%

1-2 6.4%

1-3 2.7%

1-4 0.8%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 7.7%

2-1 9.7%

2-2 6.0%

2-3 2.5%

2-4 0.8%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 4.9%

3-1 6.1%

3-2 3.8%

3-3 1.6%

3-4 0.5%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 2.3%

4-1 2.9%

4-2 1.8%

4-3 0.8%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.9%

5-1 1.1%

5-2 0.7%

5-3 0.3%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.7%) 1-0 (8.1%) 2-0 (7.7%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Lech Poznan Win

50%

Draw

20%

Arka Gdynia Win

30%

3.33

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Lech Poznan

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

6.3 —

Defence

6.3 —

Arka Gdynia

Overall

3.9 ▲

Scoring

4.7 ▲

Defence

3.7 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%

Home Win & BTTS No 21%

Draw & BTTS Yes 13%

Draw & BTTS No 9%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%

Away Win & BTTS No 10%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 42%

Home Win & Under 2.5 10%

Draw & Over 2.5 18%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 21%

Away Win & Under 2.5 5%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

09.11.25EKS

Arka Gdynia3

Lech Poznan1

07.12.23CUP

Arka Gdynia0

Lech Poznan1

09.07.21CF

Lech Poznan0

Arka Gdynia2

19.12.19EKS

Lech Poznan1

Arka Gdynia1

17.08.19EKS

Arka Gdynia0

Lech Poznan0

03.03.19EKS

Lech Poznan1

Arka Gdynia0

21.09.18EKS

Arka Gdynia1

Lech Poznan0

11.02.18EKS

Arka Gdynia0

Lech Poznan0

27.08.17EKS

Lech Poznan3

Arka Gdynia0

02.05.17CUP

Lech Poznan1

Arka Gdynia2

Recent Form

Lech Poznan

02.05.26EKS

Motor Lublin0

Lech Poznan1

26.04.26EKS

Lech Poznan4

Legia0

18.04.26EKS

Pogon Szczecin1

Lech Poznan2

12.04.26EKS

Lech Poznan3

GKS Katowice3

04.04.26EKS

Jagiellonia0

Lech Poznan0

22.03.26EKS

Lech Poznan4

Termalica B-B.1

19.03.26UECL

Shakhtar Donetsk1

Lech Poznan2

15.03.26EKS

Zaglebie0

Lech Poznan1

12.03.26UECL

Lech Poznan1

Shakhtar Donetsk3

07.03.26EKS

Widzew Lodz2

Lech Poznan1

Arka Gdynia

27.04.26EKS

Piast Gliwice4

Arka Gdynia1

19.04.26EKS

Arka Gdynia0

Jagiellonia3

12.04.26EKS

Cracovia2

Arka Gdynia2

07.04.26EKS

Arka Gdynia3

Zaglebie1

22.03.26EKS

Korona Kielce3

Arka Gdynia0

15.03.26EKS

Arka Gdynia0

Widzew Lodz0

09.03.26EKS

Wisla Plock0

Arka Gdynia3

05.03.26EKS

Radomiak Radom3

Arka Gdynia1

27.02.26EKS

Arka Gdynia2

Lechia Gdansk2

22.02.26EKS

Arka Gdynia2

GKS Katowice1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Poland Ekstraklasa game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.38 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?

Our selection is 1 — Lech Poznan to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 48%.

What is Lech Poznan's current form?

Lech Poznan have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Arka Gdynia been performing recently?

Arka Gdynia have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Lech Poznan lead with 3 wins versus Arka Gdynia's 4, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

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