WON

Result: Al Merreikh 4-1 Etincelles

Al Merreikh

Home Side

W W L D W

6W 3D 1L

4-1

Rwanda Premier League

Etincelles

Away Side

D D L W L

2W 5D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Al Merreikh to win — Thursday, 7th May 2026

Best Odds 1.48

Confidence 62%

Implied Prob 67.6%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Al Merreikh to win

1.48

Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No70% Al Merreikh Clean Sheet70%

Implied Prob

67.6%

Based on 1.48 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-5.6%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Al Merreikh

Draws

Etincelles

Meetings

100%

BTTS Rate

100%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Al Merreikh won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Al Merreikh

Metric

Etincelles

1.4

Goals For / Game

0.7

0.3

Goals Against / Game

70%

Clean Sheet %

40%

6-3-1

W — D — L

2-5-3

Win Rate Comparison

60%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 18.3%

0-1 9.1%

0-2 2.3%

0-3 0.4%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 21.9%

1-1 11.0%

1-2 2.7%

1-3 0.5%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 13.2%

2-1 6.6%

2-2 1.6%

2-3 0.3%

2-4 0.0%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 5.3%

3-1 2.6%

3-2 0.7%

3-3 0.1%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.6%

4-1 0.8%

4-2 0.2%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.4%

5-1 0.2%

5-2 0.1%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (21.9%) 2-0 (13.2%) 2-1 (6.6%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ E=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Al Merreikh Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Etincelles Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Al Merreikh

Overall

6.9 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

9.0 —

Etincelles

Overall

3.5 —

Scoring

2.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Home Win & BTTS No 35%

Draw & BTTS Yes 10%

Draw & BTTS No 23%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%

Away Win & BTTS No 12%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 18%

Home Win & Under 2.5 33%

Draw & Over 2.5 12%

Draw & Under 2.5 21%

Away Win & Over 2.5 6%

Away Win & Under 2.5 11%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

17.12.25PL

Etincelles1

Al-Merreikh2

Recent Form

Al Merreikh

02.05.26PL

Gicumbi0

Al-Merreikh3

26.04.26PL

Al-Merreikh3

Bugesera0

18.04.26PL

Mukura Victory Sports1

Al-Merreikh0

04.04.26PL

Al-Merreikh0

Rutsiro0

19.03.26PL

Al-Merreikh3

Muhanga0

16.03.26PL

Rayon Sport0

Al-Merreikh0

09.03.26PL

Police0

Al-Merreikh1

27.02.26PL

Al-Merreikh1

Gasogi United1

22.02.26PL

AS Kigali0

Al-Merreikh1

17.02.26PL

Al-Hilal Omdurman1

Al-Merreikh2

Etincelles

02.05.26PL

Etincelles0

Amagaju0

26.04.26PL

Etincelles0

Kiyovu0

21.04.26CUP

Etincelles1

APR3

18.04.26PL

Etincelles2

APR1

04.04.26PL

Bugesera3

Etincelles0

22.03.26PL

Police1

Etincelles1

18.03.26CUP

Etincelles2

Bugesera0

14.03.26PL

Rutsiro0

Etincelles0

11.03.26CUP

Bugesera1

Etincelles0

08.03.26PL

Etincelles1

Rayon Sport1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Al Merreikh host Etincelles in Rwanda Premier League. We recommend Al Merreikh to win as the standout selection.

Al Merreikh arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Etincelles are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Merreikh, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Etincelles's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al merreikh to win at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Rwanda Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.48 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Al Merreikh vs Etincelles?

Our selection is 1 — Al Merreikh to win, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 62%.

What is Al Merreikh's current form?

Al Merreikh have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.

How has Etincelles been performing recently?

Etincelles have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Al Merreikh lead with 1 wins versus Etincelles's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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