WON
Result: Al Ahli SC 3-1 Al Fateh
DirectWinPredict Saudi Professional League Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh
A

Al Ahli SC

Home Side
W L W W W
6W 1D 3L
VS
3-1
Saudi Professional League
A
Al Fateh
Away Side
D D W L L
2W 3D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Al Ahli SC to win — Wednesday, 6th May 2026
Best Odds 1.29
Confidence 48%
Implied Prob 77.5%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Ahli SC to win
1.29
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
77.5%
Based on 1.29 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-29.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
3
Al Ahli SC
2
Draws
5
Al Fateh
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
2.4
Avg Goals
Against Pick Al Ahli SC won 3 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Al Ahli SC
Metric
Al Fateh
3.5
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-1-3
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate Comparison
60%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 2.6%
0-1 2.9%
0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 6.6%
1-1 7.3%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.2%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 4.6%
4-1 5.0%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 2.3%
5-1 2.6%
5-2 1.4%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.3%) 2-0 (8.5%) 3-1 (7.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Al Ahli SC Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Al Fateh Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Al Ahli SC
Overall
6.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.7
Al Fateh
Overall
2.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
4.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
26.12.25SPL
Al Fateh2
Al Ahli SC1
07.02.25SPL
Al Ahli SC2
Al Fateh0
27.08.24SPL
Al Fateh1
Al Ahli SC0
02.03.24SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Fateh1
02.09.23SPL
Al Fateh5
Al Ahli SC1
11.02.22SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Ahli SC1
17.09.21SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Fateh1
20.03.21SPL
Al Fateh4
Al Ahli SC1
22.12.20SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Fateh0
21.02.20SPL
Al Ahli SC0
Al Fateh1
Recent Form
Al Ahli SC
03.05.26SPL
Al Ahli SC4
Al Okhdood0
W
29.04.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Ahli SC0
L
25.04.26CL
Al Ahli SC10
Machida0
W
20.04.26CL
Vissel Kobe1
Al Ahli SC2
W
17.04.26CL
Al Ahli SC2
Johor DT1
W
13.04.26CL
Al Ahli SC10
Al-Duhail0
W
08.04.26SPL
Al Fayha1
Al Ahli SC1
D
04.04.26SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Damac0
W
18.03.26KC
Al Ahli SC1
Al Hilal2
L
13.03.26SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Ahli SC2
L
Al Fateh
02.05.26SPL
Al Fateh2
Neom SC2
D
28.04.26SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Fateh1
D
24.04.26SPL
Al Fateh1
Al Khaleej0
W
05.04.26SPL
Al Okhdood1
Al Fateh0
L
14.03.26SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Hilal1
L
06.03.26SPL
Al Taawon3
Al Fateh2
L
26.02.26SPL
Al Fateh1
Damac1
D
23.02.26SPL
Al Fateh2
Al Okhdood1
W
19.02.26SPL
Al Ettifaq4
Al Fateh3
L
14.02.26SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Nassr2
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Al Ahli SC host Al Fateh in Saudi Professional League. We recommend Al Ahli SC to win as the standout selection.

Al Ahli SC arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Fateh are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Ahli SC, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Al Fateh's 5, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al ahli sc to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Saudi Professional League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.29 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ahli SC to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Al Ahli SC's current form?
Al Ahli SC have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Fateh been performing recently?
Al Fateh have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahli SC lead with 3 wins versus Al Fateh's 5, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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