WON

Result: Rosario Central 1-0 Libertad Asuncion

Rosario Central

Home Side

D W W W W

6W 2D 2L

1-0

Copa Libertadores

Libertad Asuncion

Away Side

W L W L L

2W 1D 7L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Rosario Central to win — Tuesday, 5th May 2026

Best Odds 1.28

Confidence 56%

Implied Prob 78.1%

50%

30%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Rosario Central

Draws

Libertad Asuncion

Meetings

33%

BTTS Rate

33%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Rosario Central won 2 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Rosario Central

Metric

Libertad Asuncion

1.4

Goals For / Game

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.7

30%

Clean Sheet %

20%

6-2-2

W — D — L

2-1-7

Win Rate Comparison

60%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 7.1%

0-1 7.8%

0-2 4.3%

0-3 1.6%

0-4 0.4%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 11.0%

1-1 12.1%

1-2 6.6%

1-3 2.4%

1-4 0.7%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 8.5%

2-1 9.3%

2-2 5.1%

2-3 1.9%

2-4 0.5%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 4.4%

3-1 4.8%

3-2 2.7%

3-3 1.0%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 1.7%

4-1 1.9%

4-2 1.0%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.5%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.0%) 2-1 (9.3%) 2-0 (8.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓ L=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Rosario Central Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Libertad Asuncion Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Rosario Central

Overall

6.6 ▼

Scoring

4.7 ▼

Defence

6.7 ▼

Libertad Asuncion

Overall

2.3 ▼

Scoring

4.0 ▼

Defence

4.3 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%

Home Win & BTTS No 32%

Draw & BTTS Yes 8%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 11%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 35%

Home Win & Under 2.5 28%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 12%

Away Win & Under 2.5 9%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

15.04.26COP

Libertad Asuncion0

Rosario Central1

08.05.19COP

Rosario Central2

Libertad Asuncion1

05.04.19COP

Libertad Asuncion2

Rosario Central0

Recent Form

Rosario Central

03.05.26LPF

Rosario Central1

Tigre1

29.04.26COP

Universidad Central0

Rosario Central3

24.04.26LPF

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto1

Rosario Central2

20.04.26LPF

Rosario Central2

Sarmiento Junin1

15.04.26COP

Libertad Asuncion0

Rosario Central1

12.04.26LPF

Huracan3

Rosario Central1

09.04.26COP

Rosario Central0

Ind. del Valle0

05.04.26LPF

Rosario Central2

Atl. Tucuman1

23.03.26LPF

Ind. Rivadavia2

Rosario Central0

15.03.26LPF

Rosario Central2

Banfield1

Libertad Asuncion

02.05.26PD

Libertad Asuncion5

San Lorenzo0

28.04.26COP

Libertad Asuncion2

Ind. del Valle3

26.04.26PD

Libertad Asuncion3

Olimpia Asuncion2

21.04.26PD

Rubio Nu3

Libertad Asuncion0

15.04.26COP

Libertad Asuncion0

Rosario Central1

13.04.26PD

Libertad Asuncion1

Sportivo Trinidense1

09.04.26COP

Universidad Central3

Libertad Asuncion1

06.04.26PD

Guarani1

Libertad Asuncion0

31.03.26PD

Libertad Asuncion1

Recoleta0

28.03.26PD

Ameliano2

Libertad Asuncion0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Copa Libertadores game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.28 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our selection is 1 — Rosario Central to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 56%.

What is Rosario Central's current form?

Rosario Central have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Libertad Asuncion been performing recently?

Libertad Asuncion have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Rosario Central lead with 2 wins versus Libertad Asuncion's 1, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.

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