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Result: Flora 1-0 Narva
DirectWinPredict Estonian Cup Flora vs Narva
F

Flora

Home Side
W W W L W
6W 0D 4L
VS
1-0
Estonian Cup
N
Narva
Away Side
L L L L L
3W 0D 7L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Tuesday, 5th May 2026
Best Odds 1.48
Confidence 84%
Implied Prob 67.6%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.48
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
67.6%
Based on 1.48 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+16.4%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
50.7%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Flora
3
Draws
0
Narva
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
4.1
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Flora
Metric
Narva
2.1
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3
30%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-0-4
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate Comparison
60%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
F0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 2.8%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 7.1%
1-2 4.5%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
F3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 4.8%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
F4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 3.1%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 2.0%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.1%) 3-1 (7.7%) 2-0 (7.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓   N=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Flora
Overall
6.0
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.7
Narva
Overall
3.0
Scoring
4.0
Defence
0.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 54%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
21.10.25ML
Flora4
Narva0
02.08.25ML
Narva1
Flora1
18.06.25ML
Narva1
Flora2
01.03.25ML
Flora2
Narva2
17.09.24ML
Narva1
Flora1
03.08.24ML
Flora3
Narva1
18.05.24ML
Narva1
Flora3
06.04.24ML
Flora4
Narva3
25.02.24SC
Flora3
Narva2
Recent Form
Flora
30.04.26ML
Flora5
Harju JK Laagri0
W
26.04.26ML
Paide1
Flora2
W
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
W
19.04.26ML
Levadia4
Flora0
L
12.04.26ML
Flora2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
07.04.26ML
Flora2
Kuressaare1
W
03.04.26ML
Tammeka3
Flora1
L
22.03.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Flora0
L
15.03.26ML
Flora0
Kalju1
L
10.03.26CUP
Flora3
Nomme Utd1
W
Narva
01.05.26ML
Narva0
Kalju3
L
26.04.26ML
Levadia7
Narva0
L
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
L
18.04.26ML
Narva1
Kuressaare2
L
11.04.26ML
Nomme Utd5
Narva1
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
W
03.04.26ML
Kalju2
Narva1
L
21.03.26ML
Narva2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
15.03.26ML
Paide1
Narva0
L
11.03.26CUP
Narva4
Viimsi JK3
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Flora host Narva in Estonian Cup. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Flora arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Narva are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 0D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Flora, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Narva's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonian Cup game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.48 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Narva?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 84%.
What is Flora's current form?
Flora have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Narva been performing recently?
Narva have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Flora lead with 7 wins versus Narva's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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