WON

Result: Dewa United 1-0 Semen Padang

Dewa United

Home Side

W W D W W

5W 3D 2L

1-0

Indonesia Super League

Semen Padang

Away Side

1W 2D 7L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Dewa United to win — Sunday, 3rd May 2026

Best Odds 1.33

Confidence 53%

Implied Prob 75.2%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Dewa United to win

1.33

BTTS — No65%

Implied Prob

75.2%

Based on 1.33 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-22.2%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Dewa United

Draws

Semen Padang

Meetings

33%

BTTS Rate

67%

Over 2.5

5.7

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Dewa United won 2 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Dewa United

Metric

Semen Padang

1.2

Goals For / Game

0.5

Goals Against / Game

1.9

30%

Clean Sheet %

20%

5-3-2

W — D — L

1-2-7

Win Rate Comparison

50%

10%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 10.0%

0-1 7.5%

0-2 2.8%

0-3 0.7%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 15.5%

1-1 11.7%

1-2 4.4%

1-3 1.1%

1-4 0.2%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 12.0%

2-1 9.0%

2-2 3.4%

2-3 0.9%

2-4 0.2%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 6.2%

3-1 4.7%

3-2 1.8%

3-3 0.4%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.4%

4-1 1.8%

4-2 0.7%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.8%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (15.5%) 2-0 (12.0%) 2-1 (9.0%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · D=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Dewa United Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Semen Padang Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Dewa United

Overall

5.9 ▼

Scoring

4.0 ▼

Defence

6.7 ▼

Semen Padang

Overall

1.6 ▲

Scoring

1.7 ▲

Defence

3.7 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%

Home Win & BTTS No 38%

Draw & BTTS Yes 10%

Draw & BTTS No 19%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%

Away Win & BTTS No 8%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 27%

Home Win & Under 2.5 32%

Draw & Over 2.5 13%

Draw & Under 2.5 16%

Away Win & Over 2.5 5%

Away Win & Under 2.5 7%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

15.08.25SL

Semen Padang2

Dewa United0

05.03.25SL

Dewa United6

Semen Padang0

25.10.24SL

Semen Padang1

Dewa United8

Recent Form

Dewa United

29.04.26SL

Dewa United1

Persijap Jepara0

25.04.26SL

Madura United1

Dewa United2

20.04.26SL

Dewa United2

Persib Bandung2

12.04.26SL

Malut United1

Dewa United2

03.04.26SL

Dewa United1

PSIM Yogyakarta0

15.03.26SL

Persija Jakarta1

Dewa United1

12.03.26CHL

Dewa United2

Manila Digger2

05.03.26CHL

Manila Digger1

Dewa United0

01.03.26SL

Dewa United0

FC Bhayangkara2

26.02.26SL

Persita0

Dewa United1

Semen Padang

29.04.26SL

Semen Padang0

Madura United1

25.04.26SL

Borneo3

Semen Padang0

20.04.26SL

Semen Padang0

Persijap Jepara2

12.04.26SL

Persis Solo2

Semen Padang1

05.04.26SL

Semen Padang0

Persib Bandung2

09.03.26SL

PSBS Biak Numfor0

Semen Padang2

04.03.26SL

Semen Padang0

PSIM Yogyakarta0

24.02.26SL

FC Bhayangkara4

Semen Padang0

20.02.26SL

Semen Padang2

Malut United2

15.02.26SL

Arema FC3

Semen Padang0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Sunday, 3rd May 2026, Dewa United host Semen Padang in Indonesia Super League. We recommend Dewa United to win as the standout selection.

Dewa United arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Semen Padang are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dewa United, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Semen Padang's 1, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: dewa united to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Indonesia Super League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.33 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Dewa United vs Semen Padang?

Our selection is 1 — Dewa United to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 53%.

What is Dewa United's current form?

Dewa United have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Semen Padang been performing recently?

Semen Padang have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Dewa United lead with 2 wins versus Semen Padang's 1, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.

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