WON
Result: PSG 2-2 Lorient
DirectWinPredict Ligue 1 PSG vs Lorient
P

PSG

Home Side
W W W L W
9W 0D 1L
VS
2-2
Ligue 1
L
Lorient
Away Side
L W L D L
2W 4D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Saturday, 2nd May 2026
Best Odds 1.42
Confidence 72%
Implied Prob 70.4%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.42
Over 1.5 Goals90% PSG Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
70.4%
Based on 1.42 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+1.6%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
5.3%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
5
PSG
3
Draws
2
Lorient
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Over 2.5 in 50% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
PSG
Metric
Lorient
3.1
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
60%
Clean Sheet %
10%
9-0-1
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate Comparison
90%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
P0
0-0 3.3%
0-1 3.7%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
P1
1-0 7.7%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 8.8%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 6.8%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 4.3%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
P5
5-0 1.8%
5-1 2.0%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.7%) 2-0 (8.8%) 1-1 (8.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   L=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
PSG
Overall
9.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.0
Lorient
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 41%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
29.10.25L1
Lorient1
PSG1
24.04.24L1
Lorient1
PSG4
12.08.23L1
PSG0
Lorient0
30.04.23L1
PSG1
Lorient3
06.11.22L1
Lorient1
PSG2
03.04.22L1
PSG5
Lorient1
22.12.21L1
Lorient1
PSG1
31.01.21L1
Lorient3
PSG2
16.12.20L1
PSG2
Lorient0
19.01.20CDF
Lorient0
PSG1
Recent Form
PSG
28.04.26CL
PSG5
Bayern Munich4
W
25.04.26L1
Angers0
PSG3
W
22.04.26L1
PSG3
Nantes0
W
19.04.26L1
PSG1
Lyon2
L
14.04.26CL
Liverpool0
PSG2
W
08.04.26CL
PSG2
Liverpool0
W
03.04.26L1
PSG3
Toulouse1
W
21.03.26L1
Nice0
PSG4
W
17.03.26CL
Chelsea0
PSG3
W
11.03.26CL
PSG5
Chelsea2
W
Lorient
26.04.26L1
Lorient2
Strasbourg3
L
18.04.26L1
Lorient2
Marseille0
W
12.04.26L1
Lyon2
Lorient0
L
05.04.26L1
Lorient1
Paris FC1
D
21.03.26L1
Toulouse1
Lorient0
L
14.03.26L1
Lorient2
Lens1
W
08.03.26L1
Lille1
Lorient1
D
04.03.26CDF
Lorient0
Nice - L (aet)1
01.03.26L1
Lorient2
Auxerre2
D
22.02.26L1
Nice3
Lorient3
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Ligue 1 game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.42 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PSG vs Lorient?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is PSG's current form?
PSG have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Lorient been performing recently?
Lorient have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PSG lead with 5 wins versus Lorient's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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