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Result: Paide 0-1 Tammeka
DirectWinPredict Estonia Meistriliiga Paide vs Tammeka
P

Paide

Home Side
L D W W W
6W 2D 2L
VS
0-1
Estonia Meistriliiga
T
Tammeka
Away Side
L L D L L
2W 2D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing Paide to win or draw — Friday, 1st May 2026
Best Odds 1.09
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 91.7%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Paide to win or draw
1.09
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Implied Prob
91.7%
Based on 1.09 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-1.7%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
9
Paide
0
Draws
1
Tammeka
10
Meetings
30%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
2.7
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Paide
Metric
Tammeka
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate Comparison
60%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.9%) 1-1 (9.7%) 2-0 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Paide
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
6.3
Tammeka
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
4.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
29.10.25CUP
Paide3
Tammeka0
18.10.25ML
Paide5
Tammeka0
23.08.25ML
Tammeka0
Paide1
28.06.25ML
Tammeka0
Paide2
05.04.25ML
Paide1
Tammeka0
26.10.24ML
Paide2
Tammeka0
24.08.24ML
Tammeka1
Paide3
18.05.24ML
Tammeka1
Paide2
20.04.24ML
Paide0
Tammeka1
Recent Form
Paide
26.04.26ML
Paide1
Flora2
L
22.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Paide2
D
19.04.26ML
Paide1
Kalju0
W
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
W
08.04.26ML
Paide3
Nomme Utd1
W
03.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Paide1
W
22.03.26ML
Levadia2
Paide2
D
15.03.26ML
Paide1
Narva0
W
11.03.26CUP
Paide6
Tallinna Kalev0
W
07.03.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Paide2
L
Tammeka
25.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Tammeka0
L
22.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Levadia2
L
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
L
03.04.26ML
Tammeka3
Flora1
W
21.03.26ML
Nomme Utd2
Tammeka3
W
14.03.26ML
Kuressaare3
Tammeka2
L
08.03.26ML
Tammeka0
Kalju1
L
27.02.26CF
Riga Mariners1
Tammeka1
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 1st May 2026, Paide host Tammeka in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Paide to win or draw as the standout selection.

Paide arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Tammeka are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Paide, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Tammeka's 1, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: paide to win or draw at odds of 1.09 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonia Meistriliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1X, and it looks even better when you see the @1.09 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Paide vs Tammeka?
Our selection is 1X — Paide to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.09. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Paide's current form?
Paide have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Tammeka been performing recently?
Tammeka have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Paide lead with 9 wins versus Tammeka's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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