LOST
Result: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa
DirectWinPredict UEFA Europa League Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
N

Nottingham Forest

Home Side
W W W D D
5W 4D 1L
VS
1-0
UEFA Europa League
A
Aston Villa
Away Side
L W W D W
6W 1D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 30th April 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 88%
Implied Prob 76.9%
Head to Head Record
2
Nottingham Forest
3
Draws
5
Aston Villa
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Nottingham Forest
Metric
Aston Villa
2
Goals For / Game
1.9
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.1
40%
Clean Sheet %
40%
5-4-1
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate Comparison
50%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
N0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 7.5%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
N1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 11.7%
1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.3%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
N2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
N3
3-0 3.6%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
N4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (11.7%) 2-1 (9.0%) 1-0 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · N=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Nottingham Forest
Overall
6.2
Scoring
6.7
Defence
7.7
Aston Villa
Overall
6.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 22%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
12.04.26PL
Nottingham1
Aston Villa1
03.01.26PL
Aston Villa3
Nottingham1
05.04.25PL
Aston Villa2
Nottingham1
14.12.24PL
Nottingham2
Aston Villa1
24.02.24PL
Aston Villa4
Nottingham2
05.11.23PL
Nottingham2
Aston Villa0
08.04.23PL
Aston Villa2
Nottingham0
10.10.22PL
Nottingham1
Aston Villa1
13.03.19CHA
Nottingham1
Aston Villa3
28.11.18CHA
Aston Villa5
Nottingham5
Recent Form
Nottingham Forest
24.04.26PL
Sunderland0
Nottingham5
W
19.04.26PL
Nottingham4
Burnley1
W
16.04.26EL
Nottingham1
FC Porto0
W
12.04.26PL
Nottingham1
Aston Villa1
D
09.04.26EL
FC Porto1
Nottingham1
D
22.03.26PL
Tottenham0
Nottingham3
W
19.03.26EL
Midtjylland1
Nottingham (1 - 2)3
W
15.03.26PL
Nottingham0
Fulham0
D
12.03.26EL
Nottingham0
Midtjylland1
L
04.03.26PL
Manchester City2
Nottingham2
D
Aston Villa
25.04.26PL
Fulham1
Aston Villa0
L
19.04.26PL
Aston Villa4
Sunderland3
W
16.04.26EL
Aston Villa4
Bologna0
W
12.04.26PL
Nottingham1
Aston Villa1
D
09.04.26EL
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
W
27.03.26CF
Aston Villa1
Elche2
L
22.03.26PL
Aston Villa2
West Ham0
W
19.03.26EL
Aston Villa2
Lille0
W
15.03.26PL
Manchester Utd3
Aston Villa1
L
12.03.26EL
Lille0
Aston Villa1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 30th April 2026, Nottingham Forest host Aston Villa in UEFA Europa League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Nottingham Forest arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Aston Villa are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Nottingham Forest, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Aston Villa's 5, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this UEFA Europa League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 88%.
What is Nottingham Forest's current form?
Nottingham Forest have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aston Villa been performing recently?
Aston Villa have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Nottingham Forest lead with 2 wins versus Aston Villa's 5, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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