WON
Result: Braga 2-1 Freiburg
DirectWinPredict UEFA Europa League Braga vs Freiburg
B

Braga

Home Side
L W D W W
6W 1D 3L
VS
2-1
UEFA Europa League
F
Freiburg
Away Side
L L W W W
6W 0D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 30th April 2026
Best Odds 1.38
Confidence 72%
Implied Prob 72.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.38
BTTS — No70%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Based on 1.38 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-0.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
Neutral Data No head-to-head data on record.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Braga
Metric
Freiburg
0
Goals For / Game
1.9
0
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheet %
20%
6-1-3
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate Comparison
60%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
B0
0-0 19.2%
0-1 18.2%
0-2 8.7%
0-3 2.7%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 13.4%
1-1 12.8%
1-2 6.1%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 4.7%
2-1 4.5%
2-2 2.1%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 1.0%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-0 (19.2%) 0-1 (18.2%) 1-0 (13.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   F=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Braga
Overall
6.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Freiburg
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.3
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 2%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 29%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Braga
25.04.26PL
Fulham1
Aston Villa0
L
19.04.26PL
Aston Villa4
Sunderland3
W
16.04.26EL
Aston Villa4
Bologna0
W
12.04.26PL
Nottingham1
Aston Villa1
D
09.04.26EL
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
W
27.03.26CF
Aston Villa1
Elche2
L
22.03.26PL
Aston Villa2
West Ham0
W
19.03.26EL
Aston Villa2
Lille0
W
15.03.26PL
Manchester Utd3
Aston Villa1
L
12.03.26EL
Lille0
Aston Villa1
W
Freiburg
26.04.26BUN
Dortmund4
Freiburg0
L
23.04.26POK
Stuttgart2
Freiburg (1 - 1)1
L
19.04.26BUN
Freiburg2
Heidenheim1
W
16.04.26EL
Celta Vigo1
Freiburg3
W
12.04.26BUN
Mainz0
Freiburg1
W
09.04.26EL
Freiburg3
Celta Vigo0
W
04.04.26BUN
Freiburg2
Bayern Munich3
L
22.03.26BUN
St. Pauli1
Freiburg2
W
19.03.26EL
Freiburg5
Genk1
W
15.03.26BUN
Freiburg0
Union Berlin1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this UEFA Europa League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.38 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Braga vs Freiburg?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Braga's current form?
Braga have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Freiburg been performing recently?
Freiburg have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game.
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