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Result: Sporting CP 2-2 Tondela

Sporting CP

Home Side

D D L D W

4W 3D 3L

2-2

Portugal Liga

Tondela

Away Side

L L D L D

1W 5D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Sporting CP to win — Wednesday, 29th April 2026

Best Odds 1.09

Confidence 59%

Implied Prob 91.7%

60%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Sporting CP

Draws

Tondela

Meetings

30%

BTTS Rate

50%

Over 2.5

2.6

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Sporting CP won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Sporting CP

Metric

Tondela

1.6

Goals For / Game

0.9

Goals Against / Game

1.7

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

4-3-3

W — D — L

1-5-4

Win Rate Comparison

40%

10%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 7.4%

0-1 7.1%

0-2 3.4%

0-3 1.1%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 12.3%

1-1 11.6%

1-2 5.5%

1-3 1.8%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.1%

2-1 9.6%

2-2 4.6%

2-3 1.4%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.6%

3-1 5.3%

3-2 2.5%

3-3 0.8%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.3%

4-1 2.2%

4-2 1.0%

4-3 0.3%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.8%

5-1 0.7%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.3%) 2-0 (10.1%) 2-1 (9.6%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓ T=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Sporting CP Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Tondela Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Sporting CP

Overall

4.9 ▲

Scoring

5.3 ▲

Defence

6.7 ▲

Tondela

Overall

2.5 ▲

Scoring

3.0 ▲

Defence

4.3 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 18%

Draw & BTTS No 26%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%

Away Win & BTTS No 7%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 20%

Home Win & Under 2.5 24%

Draw & Over 2.5 20%

Draw & Under 2.5 24%

Away Win & Over 2.5 5%

Away Win & Under 2.5 7%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

26.10.25LP

Tondela0

Sporting CP3

09.01.24TP

Sporting CP4

Tondela0

23.12.23CUP

Tondela1

Sporting CP2

09.04.22LP

Tondela1

Sporting CP3

28.11.21LP

Sporting CP2

Tondela0

13.03.21LP

Tondela0

Sporting CP1

01.11.20LP

Sporting CP4

Tondela0

18.06.20LP

Sporting CP2

Tondela0

03.11.19LP

Tondela1

Sporting CP0

11.05.19LP

Sporting CP1

Tondela1

Recent Form

Sporting CP

26.04.26LP

AFS1

Sporting CP1

22.04.26TP

FC Porto0

Sporting CP0

19.04.26LP

Sporting CP1

Benfica2

15.04.26CL

Arsenal0

Sporting CP0

11.04.26LP

Estrela0

Sporting CP1

07.04.26CL

Sporting CP0

Arsenal1

03.04.26LP

Sporting CP4

Santa Clara2

22.03.26LP

Alverca1

Sporting CP4

17.03.26CL

Sporting CP5

Bodo/Glimt (3 - 0)0

11.03.26CL

Bodo/Glimt3

Sporting CP0

Tondela

25.04.26LP

Tondela0

Nacional2

19.04.26LP

FC Porto2

Tondela0

13.04.26LP

Tondela2

Gil Vicente2

03.04.26LP

Vitoria Guimaraes5

Tondela0

21.03.26LP

Tondela0

AFS0

09.03.26LP

Tondela0

Rio Ave1

01.03.26LP

Tondela2

Santa Clara2

20.02.26LP

Estrela0

Tondela2

13.02.26LP

Tondela1

Alverca1

07.02.26LP

Estoril2

Tondela2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Portugal Liga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.09 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Sporting CP vs Tondela?

Our selection is 1 — Sporting CP to win, priced at approximately 1.09. Tip confidence rating: 59%.

What is Sporting CP's current form?

Sporting CP have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.

How has Tondela been performing recently?

Tondela have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Sporting CP lead with 8 wins versus Tondela's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

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