WON
Result: Mingachevir 7-1 Zaqatala
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan 1 Liqa Mingachevir vs Zaqatala
M

Mingachevir

Home Side
L W W W D
5W 3D 2L
VS
7-1
Azerbaijan 1 Liqa
Z
Zaqatala
Away Side
L L L W D
2W 2D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Mingachevir to win — Wednesday, 29th April 2026
Best Odds 1.33
Confidence 45%
Implied Prob 75.2%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
3
Mingachevir
4
Draws
3
Zaqatala
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.6
Avg Goals
Against Pick Mingachevir won 3 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Mingachevir
Metric
Zaqatala
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheet %
30%
5-3-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate Comparison
50%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
Z0
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
Z5
M0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 8.2%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.0%
M1
1-0 13.6%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
M2
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 5.1%
3-1 4.6%
3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
M4
4-0 1.9%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.6%) 2-0 (10.2%) 2-1 (9.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   Z=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Mingachevir Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Zaqatala Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Mingachevir
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.0
Zaqatala
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
13.02.261L
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala0
23.10.251L
Zaqatala2
Mingachevir3
03.04.251L
Mingachevir2
Zaqatala2
31.01.251L
Zaqatala2
Mingachevir1
30.10.24CUP
Mingachevir1
Zaqatala0
03.10.241L
Mingachevir2
Zaqatala3
09.05.241L
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala0
07.03.241L
Zaqatala1
Mingachevir2
23.11.231L
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala1
15.02.231L
Mingachevir2
Zaqatala2
Recent Form
Mingachevir
22.04.261L
Cebrayil2
Mingachevir1
L
16.04.261L
Mingachevir2
Difai Agsu1
W
09.04.261L
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
03.04.261L
Mingachevir5
Safa Baku2
W
18.03.261L
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
D
12.03.261L
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
L
05.03.261L
Baku Sporting0
Mingachevir1
W
25.02.261L
Mingachevir2
MOIK Baku0
W
19.02.261L
Safa Baku2
Mingachevir2
D
13.02.261L
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala0
D
Zaqatala
22.04.261L
Zaqatala0
Sahdag Qusar1
L
15.04.261L
MOIK Baku2
Zaqatala1
L
08.04.261L
Cebrayil3
Zaqatala2
L
02.04.261L
Zaqatala1
Difai Agsu0
W
19.03.261L
Shimal0
Zaqatala0
D
13.03.261L
Cebrayil1
Zaqatala0
L
05.03.261L
Zaqatala3
Shimal4
L
25.02.261L
Sahdag Qusar1
Zaqatala0
L
19.02.261L
Zaqatala2
Difai Agsu1
W
13.02.261L
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 29th April 2026, Mingachevir host Zaqatala in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Mingachevir to win as the standout selection.

Mingachevir arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Zaqatala are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Mingachevir, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Zaqatala's 3, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: mingachevir to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.33 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mingachevir vs Zaqatala?
Our selection is 1 — Mingachevir to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Mingachevir's current form?
Mingachevir have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Zaqatala been performing recently?
Zaqatala have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mingachevir lead with 3 wins versus Zaqatala's 3, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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