WON
Result: Estrela 1-2 FC Porto
DirectWinPredict Portugal Liga Estrela vs FC Porto
E

Estrela

Home Side
L L L W L
2W 2D 6L
VS
1-2
Portugal Liga
F
FC Porto
Away Side
D W L W D
6W 3D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing FC Porto to win — Sunday, 26th April 2026
Best Odds 1.33
Confidence 61%
Implied Prob 75.2%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Head to Head Record
2
Estrela
0
Draws
8
FC Porto
10
Meetings
30%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
3.1
Avg Goals
Supports Pick FC Porto won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Estrela
Metric
FC Porto
0.9
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.2
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheet %
40%
2-2-6
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate Comparison
20%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
E0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 15.3%
0-2 11.1%
0-3 5.4%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.6%
E1
1-0 8.4%
1-1 12.2%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.3%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
E2
2-0 3.4%
2-1 4.9%
2-2 3.6%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
E3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 1.3%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-1 (15.3%) 0-2 (11.1%) 1-2 (8.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · E=Home goals ↓   F=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Estrela Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
FC Porto Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Estrela
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.0
FC Porto
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 31%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
15.12.25LP
FC Porto3
Estrela1
26.04.25LP
Estrela2
FC Porto0
16.12.24LP
FC Porto2
Estrela0
17.02.24LP
FC Porto2
Estrela0
15.09.23LP
Estrela0
FC Porto1
22.04.09TP
Estrela2
FC Porto1
11.04.09LP
FC Porto3
Estrela0
22.03.09TP
FC Porto2
Estrela0
17.12.08LP
Estrela2
FC Porto4
05.04.08LP
FC Porto6
Estrela0
Recent Form
Estrela
19.04.26LP
Arouca1
Estrela0
L
11.04.26LP
Estrela0
Sporting CP1
L
04.04.26LP
Nacional2
Estrela0
L
20.03.26LP
Estrela4
Casa Pia0
W
15.03.26LP
Rio Ave2
Estrela1
L
08.03.26LP
Estrela2
Gil Vicente2
D
28.02.26LP
AFS0
Estrela0
D
20.02.26LP
Estrela0
Tondela2
L
14.02.26LP
Vitoria Guimaraes2
Estrela1
L
07.02.26LP
Estrela1
Santa Clara0
W
FC Porto
22.04.26TP
FC Porto0
Sporting CP0
D
19.04.26LP
FC Porto2
Tondela0
W
16.04.26EL
Nottingham1
FC Porto0
L
12.04.26LP
Estoril1
FC Porto3
W
09.04.26EL
FC Porto1
Nottingham1
D
04.04.26LP
FC Porto2
Famalicao2
D
22.03.26LP
Braga1
FC Porto2
W
19.03.26EL
FC Porto2
Stuttgart0
W
15.03.26LP
FC Porto3
Moreirense0
W
12.03.26EL
Stuttgart1
FC Porto2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Sunday, 26th April 2026, Estrela host FC Porto in Portugal Liga. We recommend FC Porto to win as the standout selection.

Estrela arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FC Porto are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Estrela, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to FC Porto's 8, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fc porto to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Portugal Liga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.33 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Estrela vs FC Porto?
Our selection is 2 — FC Porto to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Estrela's current form?
Estrela have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has FC Porto been performing recently?
FC Porto have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Estrela lead with 2 wins versus FC Porto's 8, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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