LOST
Result: Kalju 1-2 Parnu JK Vaprus
DirectWinPredict Estonia Meistriliiga Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
K

Kalju

Home Side
W L D W W
7W 2D 1L
VS
1-2
Estonia Meistriliiga
P
Parnu JK Vaprus
Away Side
W D L L L
3W 1D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Kalju to win — Sunday, 26th April 2026
Best Odds 1.27
Confidence 61%
Implied Prob 78.7%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Kalju to win
1.27
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
78.7%
Based on 1.27 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-17.7%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Kalju
2
Draws
1
Parnu JK Vaprus
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Kalju won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Kalju
Metric
Parnu JK Vaprus
2.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
1
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheet %
20%
7-2-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
K0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
K4
4-0 4.0%
4-1 3.8%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (10.4%) 2-1 (9.9%) 1-0 (9.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Kalju Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Parnu JK Vaprus Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Kalju
Overall
7.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
6.7
Parnu JK Vaprus
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
3.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 40%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
05.10.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus0
10.08.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
27.06.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Kalju2
01.03.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju3
24.01.25CF
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju3
09.11.24ML
Kalju2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
15.09.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju4
03.07.24ML
Kalju4
Parnu JK Vaprus2
30.03.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju2
07.10.23ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Recent Form
Kalju
05.10.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
10.08.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
L
27.06.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Kalju2
D
01.03.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju3
L
24.01.25CF
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju3
L
09.11.24ML
Kalju2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
15.09.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju4
L
03.07.24ML
Kalju4
Parnu JK Vaprus2
W
30.03.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju2
L
07.10.23ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
D
Parnu JK Vaprus
21.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
12.04.26ML
Flora2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
L
08.04.26ML
Levadia2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
04.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Harju JK Laagri2
L
21.03.26ML
Narva2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
14.03.26ML
Nomme Utd7
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
10.03.26CUP
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Tartu Welco1
W
07.03.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Paide2
W
15.02.26CF
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Narva2
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Sunday, 26th April 2026, Kalju host Parnu JK Vaprus in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Kalju to win as the standout selection.

Kalju arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Parnu JK Vaprus are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kalju, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Parnu JK Vaprus's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kalju to win at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonia Meistriliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.27 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
Our selection is 1 — Kalju to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Kalju's current form?
Kalju have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Parnu JK Vaprus been performing recently?
Parnu JK Vaprus have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kalju lead with 7 wins versus Parnu JK Vaprus's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.