WON

Result: Borneo 3-0 Semen Padang

Borneo

Home Side

W W W D W

7W 2D 1L

3-0

Indonesia Super League

Semen Padang

Away Side

L L L W D

2W 3D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Borneo to win — Saturday, 25th April 2026

Best Odds 1.27

Confidence 55%

Implied Prob 78.7%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Borneo to win

1.27

Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

78.7%

Based on 1.27 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-23.7%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Borneo

Draws

Semen Padang

Meetings

56%

BTTS Rate

33%

Over 2.5

2.1

Avg Goals

Neutral Data Borneo won 4 of the last 9 meetings (3 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Borneo

Metric

Semen Padang

2.6

Goals For / Game

0.6

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.5

Clean Sheet %

40%

7-2-1

W — D — L

2-3-5

Win Rate Comparison

70%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.2%

0-1 4.7%

0-2 2.1%

0-3 0.6%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 10.7%

1-1 9.7%

1-2 4.4%

1-3 1.3%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 11.0%

2-1 9.9%

2-2 4.5%

2-3 1.3%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 7.5%

3-1 6.8%

3-2 3.0%

3-3 0.9%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 3.9%

4-1 3.5%

4-2 1.6%

4-3 0.5%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.6%

5-1 1.4%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (11.0%) 1-0 (10.7%) 2-1 (9.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Borneo Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Semen Padang Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Borneo

Overall

7.6 ▼

Scoring

8.7 ▼

Defence

6.0 ▼

Semen Padang

Overall

2.9 —

Scoring

2.0 —

Defence

5.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%

Home Win & BTTS No 24%

Draw & BTTS Yes 13%

Draw & BTTS No 9%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 7%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 40%

Home Win & Under 2.5 21%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 8%

Away Win & Over 2.5 11%

Away Win & Under 2.5 6%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

09.11.25SL

Semen Padang0

Borneo2

14.01.25SL

Borneo1

Semen Padang3

12.08.24SL

Semen Padang1

Borneo3

17.12.19SL

Semen Padang1

Borneo1

24.08.19SL

Borneo1

Semen Padang0

31.08.17SL

Semen Padang1

Borneo1

08.05.17SL

Borneo1

Semen Padang0

11.11.16SL

Semen Padang2

Borneo1

20.07.16SL

Borneo0

Semen Padang0

Recent Form

Borneo

18.04.26SL

PSM Makassar1

Borneo2

11.04.26SL

Borneo5

PSBS Biak Numfor1

05.04.26SL

Madura United1

Borneo3

15.03.26SL

Borneo1

Persib Bandung1

07.03.26SL

Borneo5

Persebaya1

03.03.26SL

Persija Jakarta2

Borneo2

26.02.26SL

Borneo3

Arema FC1

22.02.26SL

Dewena United2

Borneo1

07.02.26SL

FC Bhayangkara1

Borneo2

01.02.26SL

Borneo2

PSIM Yogyakarta1

Semen Padang

20.04.26SL

Semen Padang0

Persijap Jepara2

12.04.26SL

Persis Solo2

Semen Padang1

05.04.26SL

Semen Padang0

Persib Bandung2

09.03.26SL

PSBS Biak Numfor0

Semen Padang2

04.03.26SL

Semen Padang0

PSIM Yogyakarta0

24.02.26SL

FC Bhayangkara4

Semen Padang0

20.02.26SL

Semen Padang2

Malut United2

15.02.26SL

Arema FC3

Semen Padang0

08.02.26SL

Semen Padang1

Persita0

02.02.26SL

PSM Makassar0

Semen Padang0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Indonesia Super League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.27 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Borneo vs Semen Padang?

Our selection is 1 — Borneo to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is Borneo's current form?

Borneo have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.

How has Semen Padang been performing recently?

Semen Padang have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Borneo lead with 4 wins versus Semen Padang's 2, with 3 draws across 9 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.

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