WON
Result: Atletico MG 2-1 Ceara
DirectWinPredict Copa Do Brasil Atletico MG vs Ceara
A

Atletico MG

Home Side
L W L L W
5W 0D 5L
VS
2-1
Copa Do Brasil
C
Ceara
Away Side
D W W W W
4W 5D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing Atletico MG to win or draw — Thursday, 23rd April 2026
Best Odds 1.07
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 93.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Atletico MG to win or draw
1.07
Under 2.5 Goals70%
Implied Prob
93.5%
Based on 1.07 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-3.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
6
Atletico MG
3
Draws
1
Ceara
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
2.1
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Atletico MG
Metric
Ceara
1.1
Goals For / Game
1.3
1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheet %
50%
5-0-5
W — D — L
4-5-1
Win Rate Comparison
50%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
A0
0-0 12.9%
0-1 14.8%
0-2 8.5%
0-3 3.3%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 11.6%
1-1 13.3%
1-2 7.7%
1-3 2.9%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 5.2%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 3.5%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 1.6%
3-1 1.8%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (13.3%) 0-0 (12.9%) 1-0 (11.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   C=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Atletico MG
Overall
5.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.7
Ceara
Overall
5.5
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 25%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
25.10.25SA
Atletico-MG1
Ceara0
01.06.25SA
Ceara0
Atletico-MG1
09.10.22SA
Atletico-MG0
Ceara0
15.06.22SA
Ceara0
Atletico-MG0
09.10.21SA
Atletico-MG3
Ceara1
24.06.21SA
Ceara2
Atletico-MG1
22.11.20SA
Ceara2
Atletico-MG2
16.08.20SA
Atletico-MG2
Ceara0
29.09.19SA
Atletico-MG2
Ceara1
05.05.19SA
Ceara1
Atletico-MG2
Recent Form
Atletico MG
19.04.26SA
Coritiba2
Atletico-MG0
L
16.04.26COP
Atletico-MG2
Juventud1
W
12.04.26SA
Santos1
Atletico-MG0
L
09.04.26COP
Puerto Cabello2
Atletico-MG1
L
05.04.26SA
Atletico-MG2
Athletico-PR1
W
02.04.26SA
Chapecoense-SC0
Atletico-MG4
W
21.03.26SA
Fluminense1
Atletico-MG0
L
19.03.26SA
Atletico-MG1
Sao Paulo0
W
14.03.26SA
Vitoria2
Atletico-MG0
L
11.03.26SA
Atletico-MG1
Internacional0
W
Ceara
19.04.26SB
Londrina0
Ceara0
D
15.04.26COP
Ceara4
Jacuipense1
W
12.04.26SB
Ceara1
Nautico0
W
09.04.26COP
Ceara2
Fortaleza0
W
04.04.26SB
Cuiaba0
Ceara2
W
02.04.26SB
Ponte Preta1
Ceara1
D
28.03.26COP
Retro3
Ceara1
L
25.03.26COP
Ceara1
ABC1
D
21.03.26SB
Ceara1
Sao Bernardo1
D
17.03.26COP
Sao Bernardo0
Ceara (2 - 3 Pens)0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Copa Do Brasil game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1X, and it looks even better when you see the @1.07 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atletico MG vs Ceara?
Our selection is 1X — Atletico MG to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.07. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Atletico MG's current form?
Atletico MG have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ceara been performing recently?
Ceara have recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Atletico MG lead with 6 wins versus Ceara's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.