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Result: Viimsi JK 2-0 Tartu Welco
DirectWinPredict Estonia Esiliiga Viimsi JK vs Tartu Welco
V

Viimsi JK

Home Side
W L L W D
4W 1D 5L
VS
2-0
Estonia Esiliiga
T
Tartu Welco
Away Side
W W W W W
6W 1D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Thursday, 23rd April 2026
Best Odds 1.38
Confidence 84%
Implied Prob 72.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Based on 1.38 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+11.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
41.9%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Viimsi JK
1
Draws
2
Tartu Welco
10
Meetings
90%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
4.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Viimsi JK
Metric
Tartu Welco
1.7
Goals For / Game
2.8
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.7
20%
Clean Sheet %
10%
4-1-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate Comparison
40%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
V0
0-0 1.8%
0-1 4.2%
0-2 4.8%
0-3 3.7%
0-4 2.1%
0-5 1.0%
V1
1-0 3.1%
1-1 7.2%
1-2 8.2%
1-3 6.3%
1-4 3.6%
1-5 1.7%
V2
2-0 2.7%
2-1 6.1%
2-2 7.0%
2-3 5.4%
2-4 3.1%
2-5 1.4%
V3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 3.5%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 3.0%
3-4 1.8%
3-5 0.8%
V4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 1.5%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.3%
V5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (8.2%) 1-1 (7.2%) 2-2 (7.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · V=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Viimsi JK
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
4.0
Tartu Welco
Overall
6.3
Scoring
9.3
Defence
4.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 7%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 44%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
03.10.25ESI
Tartu Welco1
Viimsi JK4
18.08.25ESI
Viimsi JK3
Tartu Welco2
23.07.25ESI
Viimsi JK2
Tartu Welco1
26.04.25ESI
Tartu Welco3
Viimsi JK1
27.10.24ESI
Viimsi JK1
Tartu Welco1
10.08.24ESI
Tartu Welco1
Viimsi JK3
13.07.24ESI
Viimsi JK2
Tartu Welco4
07.04.24ESI
Tartu Welco0
Viimsi JK1
19.02.22CF
Viimsi JK8
Tartu Welco1
04.10.20ESB
Tartu Welco1
Viimsi JK5
Recent Form
Viimsi JK
16.04.26ESI
Viimsi JK5
FC Tallinn1
W
12.04.26ESI
Viimsi JK1
Nomme Utd U213
L
03.04.26ESI
FC Elva1
Viimsi JK0
L
19.03.26ESI
Viimsi JK2
Tallinna Kalev0
W
14.03.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U210
Viimsi JK0
D
11.03.26CUP
Trans Narva4
Viimsi JK3
L
06.03.26ESI
Viimsi JK2
Flora U211
W
20.02.26CF
Viimsi JK1
Nomme Utd5
L
15.02.26CF
Tammeka2
Viimsi JK0
L
07.02.26CF
Viimsi JK3
Levadia U211
W
Tartu Welco
17.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U212
W
11.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
W
03.04.26ESI
Nomme Utd U211
Tartu Welco3
W
21.03.26ESI
Tartu Welco5
Maardu1
W
14.03.26ESI
Flora U211
Tartu Welco6
W
10.03.26CUP
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Tartu Welco1
L
05.03.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Tallinna Kalev0
W
25.02.26CF
Narva2
Tartu Welco2
D
21.02.26CF
Tartu Welco0
Metta4
L
24.01.26CF
Harju JK Laagri3
Tartu Welco0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 23rd April 2026, Viimsi JK host Tartu Welco in Estonia Esiliiga. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Viimsi JK arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Tartu Welco are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Viimsi JK, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Tartu Welco's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 90% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonia Esiliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.38 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Viimsi JK vs Tartu Welco?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 84%.
What is Viimsi JK's current form?
Viimsi JK have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Tartu Welco been performing recently?
Tartu Welco have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Viimsi JK lead with 7 wins versus Tartu Welco's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 90%.
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