WON

Result: PSV 6-1 Zwolle

PSV

Home Side

W W L L W

6W 0D 4L

6-1

Eredivisie

Zwolle

Away Side

D L W D D

2W 5D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing PSV to win — Thursday, 23rd April 2026

Best Odds 1.20

Confidence 63%

Implied Prob 83.3%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — PSV to win

1.20

Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes85%

Implied Prob

83.3%

Based on 1.20 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-20.3%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

PSV

Draws

Zwolle

Meetings

60%

BTTS Rate

100%

Over 2.5

4.7

Avg Goals

Supports Pick PSV won 9 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

PSV

Metric

Zwolle

2.2

Goals For / Game

1.4

1.8

Goals Against / Game

1.8

10%

Clean Sheet %

10%

6-0-4

W — D — L

2-5-3

Win Rate Comparison

60%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 2.7%

0-1 4.4%

0-2 3.5%

0-3 1.9%

0-4 0.8%

0-5 0.2%

1-0 5.5%

1-1 8.7%

1-2 7.0%

1-3 3.7%

1-4 1.5%

1-5 0.5%

2-0 5.5%

2-1 8.7%

2-2 7.0%

2-3 3.7%

2-4 1.5%

2-5 0.5%

3-0 3.6%

3-1 5.8%

3-2 4.7%

3-3 2.5%

3-4 1.0%

3-5 0.3%

4-0 1.8%

4-1 2.9%

4-2 2.3%

4-3 1.2%

4-4 0.5%

4-5 0.2%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 1.2%

5-2 0.9%

5-3 0.5%

5-4 0.2%

5-5 0.1%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.7%) 3-1 (5.8%) 1-0 (5.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓ Z=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

PSV Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Zwolle Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

PSV

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

4.0 —

Zwolle

Overall

3.5 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

4.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 48%

Home Win & BTTS No 9%

Draw & BTTS Yes 20%

Draw & BTTS No 4%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%

Away Win & BTTS No 3%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 43%

Home Win & Under 2.5 14%

Draw & Over 2.5 18%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 14%

Away Win & Under 2.5 5%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

04.10.25ERE

Zwolle0

PSV4

18.01.25ERE

Zwolle3

PSV1

26.10.24ERE

PSV6

Zwolle0

24.02.24ERE

Zwolle1

PSV7

12.11.23ERE

PSV4

Zwolle0

15.05.22ERE

Zwolle1

PSV2

16.10.21ERE

PSV3

Zwolle1

13.05.21ERE

PSV4

Zwolle2

18.10.20ERE

Zwolle0

PSV3

21.12.19ERE

PSV4

Zwolle1

Recent Form

PSV

11.04.26ERE

Sparta Rotterdam0

PSV2

04.04.26ERE

PSV4

Utrecht3

22.03.26ERE

Telstar3

PSV1

14.03.26ERE

PSV2

Nijmegen3

07.03.26ERE

PSV2

AZ Alkmaar1

03.03.26KNV

Nijmegen3

PSV2

28.02.26ERE

Heracles1

PSV3

21.02.26ERE

PSV3

Heerenveen1

13.02.26ERE

FC Volendam2

PSV1

08.02.26ERE

Groningen1

PSV2

Zwolle

12.04.26ERE

Zwolle2

Excelsior2

05.04.26ERE

G.A. Eagles5

Zwolle0

21.03.26ERE

Zwolle2

NAC Breda1

13.03.26ERE

Zwolle1

Groningen1

08.03.26ERE

Sparta Rotterdam1

Zwolle1

01.03.26ERE

Zwolle0

Ajax0

22.02.26ERE

Utrecht1

Zwolle1

15.02.26ERE

Heerenveen4

Zwolle2

07.02.26ERE

Zwolle1

FC Volendam2

31.01.26ERE

Zwolle4

Telstar1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Eredivisie game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.20 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for PSV vs Zwolle?

Our selection is 1 — PSV to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 63%.

What is PSV's current form?

PSV have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.

How has Zwolle been performing recently?

Zwolle have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

PSV lead with 9 wins versus Zwolle's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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