WON
Result: Sao Paulo 1-0 Juventude
DirectWinPredict Copa Do Brasil Sao Paulo vs Juventude
S

Sao Paulo

Home Side
L W L W W
5W 1D 4L
VS
1-0
Copa Do Brasil
J
Juventude
Away Side
W D W L L
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Sao Paulo to win — Tuesday, 21st April 2026
Best Odds 1.42
Confidence 50%
Implied Prob 70.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Sao Paulo to win
1.42
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No75%
Implied Prob
70.4%
Based on 1.42 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-20.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
5
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
1
Juventude
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
2.2
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Sao Paulo won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Sao Paulo
Metric
Juventude
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheet %
50%
5-1-4
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
50%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
S0
0-0 15.0%
0-1 12.0%
0-2 4.8%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 16.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 9.1%
2-1 7.2%
2-2 2.9%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 2.7%
3-2 1.1%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 0.9%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (16.5%) 2-0 (9.1%) 2-1 (7.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   J=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Sao Paulo Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Juventude Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Sao Paulo
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.0
Juventude
Overall
3.6
Scoring
2.3
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 40%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 40%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 23%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
23.11.25
 (Série A) São Paulo2
Juventude1
24.07.25
 (Série A) Juventude0
São Paulo1
05.12.24
 (Série A) São Paulo1
Juventude2
21.07.24
 (Série A) Juventude0
São Paulo0
23.10.22
 (Série A) Juventude1
São Paulo2
26.06.22
 (Série A) São Paulo0
Juventude0
12.05.22
 (Copa do Brasil) São Paulo2
Juventude0
20.04.22
 (Copa do Brasil) Juventude2
São Paulo2
06.12.21
 (Série A) São Paulo3
Juventude1
29.08.21
 (Série A) Juventude1
São Paulo1
Recent Form
Sao Paulo
18.04.26
 (Série A) Vasco2
São Paulo - L1
14.04.26
 (Copa Sul-Americana) São Paulo2
O’Higgins - W0
11.04.26
 (Série A) Vitória2
São Paulo - L0
08.04.26
 (Copa Sul-Americana) Boston River0
São Paulo - W1
04.04.26
 (Série A) São Paulo4
Cruzeiro - W1
01.04.26
 (Série A) Internacional1
São Paulo - D1
22.03.26
 (Série A) São Paulo0
Palmeiras - L1
19.03.26
 (Série A) Atlético-MG1
São Paulo - L0
16.03.26
 (Série A) Bragantino1
São Paulo - W2
13.03.26
 (Série A) São Paulo2
Chapecoense-SC - W0
Juventude
19.04.26
 (Série B) CRB0
Juventude - W1
16.04.26
 (Campeonato Gaúcho) Juventude0
Chapecoense-SC - D0
11.04.26
 (Série B) Juventude2
Goiás - W0
08.04.26
 (Campeonato Gaúcho) SER Caxias1
Juventude - L0
04.04.26
 (Série B) Fortaleza2
Juventude - L1
31.03.26
 (Série B) Juventude0
Novorizontino - D0
29.03.26
 (Campeonato Gaúcho) Juventude0
Novorizontino - L2
25.03.26
 (Campeonato Gaúcho) Sampaio Corrêa FE2
Juventude - L0
22.03.26
 (Série B) Avaí2
Juventude - L0
19.03.26
 (Copa do Brasil) Juventude3
Águia de Marabá - W0
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st April 2026, Sao Paulo host Juventude in Copa Do Brasil. We recommend Sao Paulo to win as the standout selection.

Sao Paulo arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Juventude are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sao Paulo, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Juventude's 1, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sao paulo to win at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Copa Do Brasil game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.42 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Our selection is 1 — Sao Paulo to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Sao Paulo's current form?
Sao Paulo have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Juventude been performing recently?
Juventude have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sao Paulo lead with 5 wins versus Juventude's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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