WON
Result: Lens 3-2 Toulouse
DirectWinPredict Ligue 1 Lens vs Toulouse
L

Lens

Home Side
W L W L W
5W 2D 3L
VS
3-2
Ligue 1
T
Toulouse
Away Side
L L W W L
2W 2D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing Lens to win or draw — Friday, 17th April 2026
Best Odds 1.16
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 86.2%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Lens to win or draw
1.16
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
86.2%
Based on 1.16 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+3.8%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
27.5%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Lens
1
Draws
2
Toulouse
10
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
1.9
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Lens
Metric
Toulouse
2.4
Goals For / Game
1
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.8
20%
Clean Sheet %
10%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate Comparison
50%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
L0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.4%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 7.8%
1-1 9.3%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 8.1%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 5.7%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 3.6%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.5%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.8%) 1-1 (9.3%) 2-0 (8.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Lens
Overall
5.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
5.3
Toulouse
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
02.01.26Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens3
10.05.25Ligue 1
Toulouse1
Lens1
05.01.25Ligue 1
Lens0
Toulouse1
28.01.24Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens2
24.09.23Ligue 1
Lens2
Toulouse1
02.05.23Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens1
28.10.22Ligue 1
Lens3
Toulouse0
14.03.15Ligue 1
Lens1
Toulouse0
24.10.14Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens2
12.03.11Ligue 1
Lens0
Toulouse1
Recent Form
Lens
11.04.26Club Friendly
Lens2
Rouen1
W
04.04.26Ligue 1
Lille3
Lens0
L
20.03.26Ligue 1
Lens5
Angers1
W
14.03.26Ligue 1
Lorient2
Lens1
L
08.03.26Ligue 1
Lens3
Metz0
W
05.03.26Coupe de France
Lyon2
Lens (4-2 on pens)2
W
27.02.26Ligue 1
Strasbourg1
Lens1
D
21.02.26Ligue 1
Lens2
Monaco3
L
14.02.26Ligue 1
Paris FC0
Lens5
W
07.02.26Ligue 1
Lens3
Rennes1
W
Toulouse
12.04.26Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lille4
L
03.04.26Ligue 1
PSG3
Toulouse1
L
21.03.26Ligue 1
Toulouse1
Lorient0
W
15.03.26Ligue 1
Metz3
Toulouse4
W
07.03.26Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Marseille1
L
04.03.26Coupe de France
Marseille2
Toulouse (2-3 on pens)2
W
28.02.26Ligue 1
Rennes1
Toulouse0
L
21.02.26Ligue 1
Toulouse1
Paris FC1
D
15.02.26Ligue 1
Le Havre2
Toulouse1
L
08.02.26Ligue 1
Angers1
Toulouse0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 17th April 2026, Lens host Toulouse in Ligue 1. We recommend Lens to win or draw as the standout selection.

Lens arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Toulouse are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lens, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Toulouse's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lens to win or draw at odds of 1.16 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Ligue 1 game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1X, and it looks even better when you see the @1.16 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lens vs Toulouse?
Our selection is 1X — Lens to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.16. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Lens's current form?
Lens have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Toulouse been performing recently?
Toulouse have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lens lead with 7 wins versus Toulouse's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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