WON

Result: Palmeiras 2-1 Sporting Cristal

Palmeiras

Home Side

D D W W W

7W 2D 1L

2-1

Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal

Away Side

W L L W L

4W 2D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Palmeiras to win — Thursday, 16th April 2026

Best Odds 1.15

Confidence 63%

Implied Prob 87%

50%

30%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Palmeiras

Draws

Sporting Cristal

Meetings

50%

BTTS Rate

75%

Over 2.5

3.8

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Palmeiras won 3 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Palmeiras

Metric

Sporting Cristal

1.3

Goals For / Game

1.5

0.7

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheet %

40%

7-2-1

W — D — L

4-2-4

Win Rate Comparison

70%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 9.5%

0-1 10.5%

0-2 5.8%

0-3 2.1%

0-4 0.6%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 11.9%

1-1 13.1%

1-2 7.2%

1-3 2.6%

1-4 0.7%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 7.5%

2-1 8.2%

2-2 4.5%

2-3 1.7%

2-4 0.5%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 3.1%

3-1 3.4%

3-2 1.9%

3-3 0.7%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.0%

4-1 1.1%

4-2 0.6%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.2%

5-1 0.3%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.9%) 2-1 (8.2%) 2-0 (7.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Palmeiras Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Sporting Cristal Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Palmeiras

Overall

7.6 ▲

Scoring

4.3 ▲

Defence

7.7 ▲

Sporting Cristal

Overall

4.6 ▲

Scoring

5.0 ▲

Defence

6.0 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%

Home Win & BTTS No 22%

Draw & BTTS Yes 9%

Draw & BTTS No 6%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%

Away Win & BTTS No 12%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 32%

Home Win & Under 2.5 22%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 19%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

29.05.25Copa Libertadores

Palmeiras6

Sporting Cristal0

03.04.25Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal2

Palmeiras3

18.04.13Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal1

Palmeiras0

15.02.13Copa Libertadores

Palmeiras2

Sporting Cristal1

Recent Form

Palmeiras

12.04.26Serie A

Corinthians0

Palmeiras0

09.04.26Copa Libertadores

Junior1

Palmeiras1

05.04.26Serie A

Bahia1

Palmeiras2

03.04.26Serie A

Palmeiras2

Gremio1

22.03.26Serie A

Sao Paulo0

Palmeiras1

18.03.26Serie A

Palmeiras2

Botafogo RJ1

15.03.26Serie A

Palmeiras1

Mirassol0

12.03.26Serie A

Vasco2

Palmeiras1

09.03.26Paulista

Novorizontino1

Palmeiras2

05.03.26Paulista

Palmeiras1

Novorizontino0

Sporting Cristal

09.04.26Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal1

Cerro Porteno0

03.04.26Liga 1

Sporting Cristal1

Moquegua2

21.03.26Liga 1

Los Chankas3

Sporting Cristal2

15.03.26Liga 1

Sporting Cristal3

Sport Boys0

11.03.26Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal1

Carabobo2

07.03.26Liga 1

Sporting Cristal3

Alianza Atl.1

04.03.26Copa Libertadores

Carabobo0

Sporting Cristal1

28.02.26Liga 1

Sport Huancayo2

Sporting Cristal1

25.02.26Copa Libertadores

Sporting Cristal0

2 de Mayo (5-4 pens)0

21.02.26Liga 1

Sporting Cristal2

U. de Deportes2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Palmeiras host Sporting Cristal in Copa Libertadores. We recommend Palmeiras to win as the standout selection.

Palmeiras arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sporting Cristal are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Palmeiras, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Sporting Cristal's 1, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: palmeiras to win at odds of 1.15 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Copa Libertadores game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.15 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?

Our selection is 1 — Palmeiras to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 63%.

What is Palmeiras's current form?

Palmeiras have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.

How has Sporting Cristal been performing recently?

Sporting Cristal have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Palmeiras lead with 3 wins versus Sporting Cristal's 1, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.

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