WON
Result: Man United 1-2 Leeds United
DirectWinPredict Premier League Man United vs Leeds United
M

Man United

Home Side
D W L W W
7W 2D 1L
VS
1-2
Premier League
L
Leeds United
Away Side
W D D W L
2W 6D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Monday, 13th April 2026
Best Odds 1.16
Confidence 87%
Implied Prob 86.2%
Head to Head Record
6
Man United
4
Draws
0
Leeds United
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
3.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Man United
Metric
Leeds United
2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-2-1
W — D — L
2-6-2
Win Rate Comparison
70%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
M0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 1.9%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 10.8%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (12.4%) 1-0 (10.8%) 2-1 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   L=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Man United
Overall
7.6
Scoring
6.7
Defence
6.3
Leeds United
Overall
3.8
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 19%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 27%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
04.01.26
Premier League: Leeds United1
Manchester United1
19.07.25
Friendly: Manchester United0
Leeds United0
12.07.23
Friendly: Manchester United2
Leeds United0
12.02.23
Premier League: Leeds United0
Manchester United2
08.02.23
Premier League: Manchester United2
Leeds United2
20.02.22
Premier League: Leeds United2
Manchester United4
14.08.21
Premier League: Manchester United5
Leeds United1
25.04.21
Premier League: Leeds United0
Manchester United0
20.12.20
Premier League: Manchester United6
Leeds United2
17.07.19
Friendly: Manchester United4
Leeds United0
Recent Form
Man United
20.03.26
Premier League: AFC Bournemouth2
Manchester United2
D
15.03.26
Premier League: Manchester United3
Aston Villa1
W
04.03.26
Premier League: Newcastle United2
Manchester United1
L
01.03.26
Premier League: Manchester United2
Crystal Palace1
W
23.02.26
Premier League: Everton0
Manchester United1
W
10.02.26
Premier League: West Ham United1
Manchester United1
D
07.02.26
Premier League: Manchester United2
Tottenham0
W
01.02.26
Premier League: Manchester United3
Fulham2
W
25.01.26
Premier League: Arsenal2
Manchester United3
W
17.01.26
Premier League: Manchester United2
Manchester City0
W
Leeds United
05.04.26
FA Cup (QF): West Ham United2
Leeds United - W (Pens)2
21.03.26
Premier League: Leeds United0
Brentford0
D
15.03.26
Premier League: Crystal Palace0
Leeds United0
D
08.03.26
FA Cup (R5): Leeds United3
Norwich City0
W
03.03.26
Premier League: Leeds United0
Sunderland1
L
28.02.26
Premier League: Leeds United0
Manchester City1
L
21.02.26
Premier League: Aston Villa1
Leeds United1
D
15.02.26
FA Cup (R4): Birmingham City1
Leeds United - W (Replay/Pens)1
10.02.26
Premier League: Chelsea2
Leeds United2
D
06.02.26
Premier League: Leeds United3
Nottingham Forest1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.16 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Man United vs Leeds United?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.16. Tip confidence rating: 87%.
What is Man United's current form?
Man United have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Leeds United been performing recently?
Leeds United have recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Man United lead with 6 wins versus Leeds United's 0, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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