WON
Result: Estrela 0-1 Sporting CP
DirectWinPredict Liga Portugal Estrela vs Sporting CP
E

Estrela

Home Side
L W L D D
2W 3D 5L
VS
0-1
Liga Portugal
S
Sporting CP
Away Side
L W W W L
7W 1D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Sporting CP to win — Saturday, 11th April 2026
Best Odds 1.26
Confidence 68%
Implied Prob 79.4%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Sporting CP to win
1.26
BTTS — No65%
Implied Prob
79.4%
Based on 1.26 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-11.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Estrela
0
Draws
10
Sporting CP
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Sporting CP won 10 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Estrela
Metric
Sporting CP
1
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheet %
50%
2-3-5
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate Comparison
20%
70%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
E0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 11.0%
0-2 10.4%
0-3 6.6%
0-4 3.1%
0-5 1.2%
E1
1-0 5.5%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.3%
1-4 3.0%
1-5 1.1%
E2
2-0 2.6%
2-1 5.0%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 3.0%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.5%
E3
3-0 0.8%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.2%
E4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-1 (11.0%) 0-2 (10.4%) 1-2 (9.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · E=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Estrela Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Sporting CP Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Estrela
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
Sporting CP
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 42%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 7%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 38%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.11.25
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP4
Estrela0
29.03.25
Liga Portugal: Estrela0
Sporting CP3
01.11.24
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP5
Estrela1
29.03.24
Liga Portugal: Estrela1
Sporting CP2
05.11.23
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP3
Estrela2
14.07.23
Friendly: Sporting CP4
Estrela1
25.04.09
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP2
Estrela1
05.12.08
Liga Portugal: Estrela1
Sporting CP3
27.02.08
Taça de Portugal: Sporting CP1
Estrela0
17.02.08
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP2
Estrela0
Recent Form
Estrela
04.04.26
Liga Portugal: Nacional2
Estrela0
L
20.03.26
Liga Portugal: Estrela4
Casa Pia0
W
15.03.26
Liga Portugal: Rio Ave2
Estrela1
L
08.03.26
Liga Portugal: Estrela2
Gil Vicente2
D
28.02.26
Liga Portugal: AFS0
Estrela0
D
20.02.26
Liga Portugal: Estrela0
Tondela2
L
14.02.26
Liga Portugal: Vitória Guimarães2
Estrela1
L
07.02.26
Liga Portugal: Estrela1
Santa Clara0
W
31.01.26
Liga Portugal: Alverca1
Estrela1
D
25.01.26
Liga Portugal: Benfica4
Estrela0
L
Sporting CP
07.04.26
Champions League (QF): Sporting CP0
Arsenal1
L
03.04.26
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP4
Santa Clara2
W
22.03.26
Liga Portugal: Alverca1
Sporting CP4
W
17.03.26
Champions League (R16): Sporting CP5
Bodø/Glimt0
W
11.03.26
Champions League (R16): Bodø/Glimt3
Sporting CP0
L
07.03.26
Liga Portugal: SC Braga2
Sporting CP2
D
03.03.26
Taça de Portugal: Sporting CP1
FC Porto0
W
27.02.26
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP3
Estoril Praia0
W
21.02.26
Liga Portugal: Moreirense0
Sporting CP3
W
15.02.26
Liga Portugal: Sporting CP1
Famalicão0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Liga Portugal game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.26 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Our selection is 2 — Sporting CP to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Estrela's current form?
Estrela have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sporting CP been performing recently?
Sporting CP have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Estrela lead with 0 wins versus Sporting CP's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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