WON
Result: Kauno Zalgiris 5-0 Hegelmann
DirectWinPredict Lithuania TopLyga Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann
K

Kauno Zalgiris

Home Side
W D W W W
9W 1D 0L
VS
5-0
Lithuania TopLyga
H
Hegelmann
Away Side
W D D D D
2W 5D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Kauno Zalgiris to win — Saturday, 11th April 2026
Best Odds 1.37
Confidence 67%
Implied Prob 73%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
7
Kauno Zalgiris
2
Draws
1
Hegelmann
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Kauno Zalgiris won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
Hegelmann
2.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1
50%
Clean Sheet %
20%
9-1-0
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate Comparison
90%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
K0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 15.7%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 3.9%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
K2
2-0 13.0%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 3.2%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
K3
3-0 7.1%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (15.7%) 2-0 (13.0%) 2-1 (9.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   H=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Hegelmann Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Kauno Zalgiris
Overall
9.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
8.3
Hegelmann
Overall
3.5
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
01.10.25
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
Kauno Žalgiris1
27.08.25
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris2
Hegelmann1
19.06.25
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
Kauno Žalgiris2
16.04.25
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris3
Hegelmann1
24.08.24
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
Kauno Žalgiris1
23.06.24
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
Hegelmann1
28.04.24
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann0
Kauno Žalgiris1
09.03.24
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris1
Hegelmann2
12.11.23
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
Hegelmann2
29.10.23
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
Hegelmann0
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
05.04.26
TOPLYGA: FK Žalgiris0
Kauno Žalgiris3
W
21.03.26
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris1
FK Sūduva1
D
15.03.26
TOPLYGA: FA Šiauliai0
Kauno Žalgiris5
W
10.03.26
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
FK Panevėžys0
W
07.03.26
TOPLYGA: FC Džiugas1
Kauno Žalgiris2
W
28.02.26
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris1
Banga Gargždai0
W
23.02.26
TOPLYGA: FK Riteriai1
Kauno Žalgiris2
W
16.02.26
Supercup: Kauno Žalgiris1
FK Panevėžys0
W
06.02.26
Friendly: Kauno Žalgiris2
Zimbru Chișinău1
W
03.02.26
Friendly: Esbjerg fB1
Kauno Žalgiris2
W
Hegelmann
04.04.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann3
TransINVEST1
W
22.03.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann0
FK Žalgiris0
D
14.03.26
TOPLYGA: FK Sūduva0
Hegelmann0
D
11.03.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
FA Šiauliai1
D
07.03.26
TOPLYGA: FK Panevėžys1
Hegelmann1
D
28.02.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
FC Džiugas1
D
22.02.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann0
Banga Gargždai2
L
15.02.26
Friendly: Hegelmann2
Grobiņa SC1
W
08.02.26
Friendly: FK Žalgiris1
Hegelmann0
L
03.02.26
Friendly: BFC Daugavpils2
Hegelmann1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host Hegelmann in Lithuania TopLyga. We recommend Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.

Kauno Zalgiris arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Hegelmann are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Hegelmann's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Lithuania TopLyga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.37 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann?
Our selection is 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hegelmann been performing recently?
Hegelmann have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 7 wins versus Hegelmann's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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