WON
Result: KUPS 1-0 Gnistan
DirectWinPredict Finland Veikkausliiga KUPS vs Gnistan
K

KUPS

Home Side
W D W W L
3W 1D 6L
VS
1-0
Finland Veikkausliiga
G
Gnistan
Away Side
L D W L L
3W 1D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing KUPS to win — Saturday, 11th April 2026
Best Odds 1.34
Confidence 50%
Implied Prob 74.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — KUPS to win
1.34
Under 2.5 Goals79% BTTS — No90%
Implied Prob
74.6%
Based on 1.34 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-24.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
6
KUPS
2
Draws
0
Gnistan
8
Meetings
63%
BTTS Rate
75%
Over 2.5
4.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick KUPS won 6 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
KUPS
Metric
Gnistan
0.9
Goals For / Game
0
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0
30%
Clean Sheet %
0%
3-1-6
W — D — L
3-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
30%
33%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
K0
0-0 27.3%
0-1 23.2%
0-2 9.9%
0-3 2.8%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 2.8%
2-1 2.4%
2-2 1.0%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
K3
3-0 0.4%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.2%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.0%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.3%) 2-0 (2.8%) 2-1 (2.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
KUPS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gnistan Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
KUPS
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
4.3
Gnistan
Overall
3.7
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 39%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 35%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.10.25
Veikkausliiga: KuPS1
Gnistan1
27.09.25
Veikkausliiga: Gnistan0
KuPS4
01.07.25
Veikkausliiga: KuPS6
Gnistan2
27.04.25
Veikkausliiga: Gnistan1
KuPS2
07.07.24
Veikkausliiga: KuPS3
Gnistan1
19.05.24
Veikkausliiga: Gnistan0
KuPS0
20.03.21
Finnish Cup: KuPS5
Gnistan0
16.04.11
Finnish Cup: Gnistan2
KuPS6
Recent Form
KUPS
04.04.26
Veikkausliiga: Ilves1
KuPS3
W
27.03.26
Friendly: SJK0
KuPS0
D
21.03.26
Friendly: KuPS1
Jippo0
W
14.03.26
Friendly: KuPS2
IFK Mariehamn0
W
28.02.26
League Cup: AC Oulu5
KuPS0
L
26.02.26
Conference League: Lech Poznań1
KuPS0
L
22.02.26
League Cup: KuPS3
FF Jaro4
L
19.02.26
Conference League: KuPS0
Lech Poznań2
L
14.02.26
League Cup: KuPS0
Ilves1
L
07.02.26
League Cup: SJK3
KuPS0
L
Gnistan
04.04.26
Veikkausliiga: Ilves1
KuPS3
W
27.03.26
Friendly: SJK0
KuPS0
D
21.03.26
Friendly: KuPS1
Jippo0
W
14.03.26
Friendly: KuPS2
IFK Mariehamn0
W
28.02.26
League Cup: AC Oulu5
KuPS0
L
26.02.26
Conference League: Lech Poznań1
KuPS0
L
22.02.26
League Cup: KuPS3
FF Jaro4
L
19.02.26
Conference League: KuPS0
Lech Poznań2
L
14.02.26
League Cup: KuPS0
Ilves1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Finland Veikkausliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for KUPS vs Gnistan?
Our selection is 1 — KUPS to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is KUPS's current form?
KUPS have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gnistan been performing recently?
Gnistan have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
KUPS lead with 6 wins versus Gnistan's 0, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
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