WON
Result: Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha
DirectWinPredict Egypt Premier League Al Ahly vs Smouha
A

Al Ahly

Home Side
D L L L W
4W 3D 3L
VS
2-1
Egypt Premier League
S
Smouha
Away Side
L W W L L
6W 0D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Al Ahly to win — Saturday, 11th April 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 50%
Implied Prob 76.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Ahly to win
1.30
Under 2.5 Goals65%
Implied Prob
76.9%
Based on 1.30 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-26.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
6
Al Ahly
2
Draws
2
Smouha
10
Meetings
30%
BTTS Rate
40%
Over 2.5
2.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Al Ahly won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Al Ahly
Metric
Smouha
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0.8
40%
Clean Sheet %
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate Comparison
40%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 12.3%
0-1 13.5%
0-2 7.4%
0-3 2.7%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 6.1%
2-1 6.7%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.3%) 2-1 (6.7%) 2-0 (6.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Al Ahly Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Smouha Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Al Ahly
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.0
Smouha
Overall
6.0
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 34%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
07.01.25
Premier League: Al Ahly2
Smouha SC0
08.08.24
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
28.11.23
Premier League: Al Ahly0
Smouha SC0
17.04.23
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly2
17.01.23
Egypt Cup: Al Ahly3
Smouha SC1
25.12.22
Premier League: Al Ahly0
Smouha SC0
29.06.22
Premier League: Smouha SC3
Al Ahly2
27.01.22
League Cup: Smouha SC3
Al Ahly0
25.11.21
Premier League: Al Ahly4
Smouha SC1
Recent Form
Al Ahly
07.04.26
Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra1
Al Ahly1
D
21.03.26
Champions League (QF): Al Ahly2
Espérance Tunis3
L
15.03.26
Champions League (QF): Espérance Tunis1
Al Ahly0
L
09.03.26
Premier League: Tala’ea El Gaish2
Al Ahly1
L
05.03.26
Premier League: Arab Contractors1
Al Ahly3
W
28.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly1
ZED FC1
D
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
W
19.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly1
El Gouna FC0
W
15.02.26
Champions League (GS): Al Ahly0
FAR Rabat0
D
11.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly2
Ismaily SC0
W
Smouha
07.04.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
ENPPI SC2
L
07.03.26
Premier League: Smouha SC3
Modern Sport0
W
01.03.26
Premier League: National Bank of Egypt1
Smouha SC3
W
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
L
16.02.26
Premier League: Al Ittihad1
Smouha SC0
L
11.02.26
Premier League: Zamalek SC1
Smouha SC0
L
04.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC2
Pyramids FC1
W
29.01.26
Premier League: ENPPI SC1
Smouha SC2
W
21.01.26
Premier League: Smouha SC2
Pharco FC0
W
11.01.26
Egypt Cup: Smouha SC1
Haras El Hodood0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Egypt Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahly vs Smouha?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ahly to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Al Ahly's current form?
Al Ahly have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Smouha been performing recently?
Smouha have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahly lead with 6 wins versus Smouha's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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