WON
Result: Freiburg 3-0 Celta Vigo
DirectWinPredict UEFA Europa League Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
F

Freiburg

Home Side
L W W L L
4W 1D 5L
VS
3-0
UEFA Europa League
C
Celta Vigo
Away Side
W L W D D
6W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 9th April 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 88%
Implied Prob 76.9%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.30
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
76.9%
Based on 1.30 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+11.1%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
48%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
Neutral Data No head-to-head data on record.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Freiburg
Metric
Celta Vigo
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
0%
Clean Sheet %
30%
4-1-5
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
40%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
F0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 7.5%
0-2 6.6%
0-3 3.8%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.6%
F1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 5.4%
1-4 2.3%
1-5 0.8%
F2
2-0 4.2%
2-1 7.4%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
F3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.3%
F4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (10.5%) 1-2 (9.2%) 0-1 (7.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓   C=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Freiburg
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.3
Celta Vigo
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Freiburg
04.04.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg2
Bayern Munich3
L
22.03.26
Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli1
SC Freiburg2
W
19.03.26
Europa League (R16): SC Freiburg5
KRC Genk1
W
15.03.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg0
Union Berlin1
L
12.03.26
Europa League (R16): KRC Genk1
SC Freiburg0
L
07.03.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg3
Bayer Leverkusen3
D
01.03.26
Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankfurt2
SC Freiburg0
L
22.02.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg2
B. Mönchengladbach1
W
14.02.26
Bundesliga: TSG Hoffenheim3
SC Freiburg0
L
10.02.26
DFB-Pokal (QF): Hertha BSC1
SC Freiburg (AET)2
W
Celta Vigo
05.04.26
La Liga: Valencia CF2
Celta Vigo3
W
22.03.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo3
Deportivo Alavés4
L
19.03.26
Europa League (R16): Olympique Lyon0
Celta Vigo2
W
15.03.26
La Liga: Real Betis1
Celta Vigo1
D
12.03.26
Europa League (R16): Celta Vigo1
Olympique Lyon1
D
06.03.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
L
01.03.26
La Liga: Girona FC1
Celta Vigo2
W
26.02.26
Europa League (KO): Celta Vigo1
PAOK FC0
W
22.02.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo2
RCD Mallorca0
W
19.02.26
Europa League (KO): PAOK FC1
Celta Vigo2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this UEFA Europa League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Freiburg vs Celta Vigo?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 88%.
What is Freiburg's current form?
Freiburg have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Celta Vigo been performing recently?
Celta Vigo have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game.
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