WON
Result: Al Shorta 4-1 Baghdad
DirectWinPredict Iraq Stars League Al Shorta vs Baghdad
A

Al Shorta

Home Side
W D W D D
6W 3D 1L
VS
4-1
Iraq Stars League
B
Baghdad
Away Side
W W L L L
1W 1D 8L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Al Shorta to win — Wednesday, 8th April 2026
Best Odds 1.20
Confidence 63%
Implied Prob 83.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Shorta to win
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
83.3%
Based on 1.20 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-20.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
9
Al Shorta
1
Draws
0
Baghdad
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
2.9
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Al Shorta won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Al Shorta
Metric
Baghdad
2
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.2
30%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate Comparison
60%
10%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 4.5%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 9.5%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 6.6%
3-1 6.9%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 3.7%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.5%
5-1 1.5%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.9%) 2-0 (9.5%) 1-0 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   B=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Al Shorta Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Baghdad Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Al Shorta
Overall
6.9
Scoring
6.7
Defence
6.0
Baghdad
Overall
1.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 47%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 3%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 47%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.12.25
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Al-Shorta2
13.05.24
Stars League: Al-Shorta2
Amanat Baghdad1
05.12.23
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Al-Shorta2
07.06.22
Stars League: Al-Shorta2
Amanat Baghdad0
31.12.21
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Al-Shorta3
01.03.21
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Al-Shorta1
30.10.20
Stars League: Al-Shorta2
Amanat Baghdad0
26.02.20
Stars League: Al-Shorta3
Amanat Baghdad1
02.07.19
Stars League: Al-Shorta2
Amanat Baghdad1
05.02.19
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Al-Shorta2
Recent Form
Al Shorta
04.04.26
Stars League: Al-Najaf1
Al-Shorta3
W
31.03.26
Stars League: Al-Shorta3
Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya3
D
26.03.26
Stars League: Zakho0
Al-Shorta2
W
21.03.26
Stars League: Al-Naft1
Al-Shorta1
D
17.03.26
Stars League: Al-Shorta3
Al-Talaba3
D
12.03.26
Stars League: Al-Mosul0
Al-Shorta1
W
07.03.26
Stars League: Duhok2
Al-Shorta1
L
02.03.26
Stars League: Al-Shorta2
Al-Kahraba0
W
26.02.26
Stars League: Al-Zawraa1
Al-Shorta2
W
21.02.26
Stars League: Al-Shorta2
Diyala1
W
Baghdad
03.04.26
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Zakho SC2
L
30.03.26
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad2
Al-Karma1
W
25.03.26
Stars League: Al-Talaba2
Amanat Baghdad1
L
21.03.26
Stars League: Al-Zawraa3
Amanat Baghdad2
L
17.03.26
Stars League: Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya3
Amanat Baghdad1
L
12.03.26
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad0
Newroz SC2
L
06.03.26
Stars League: Naft Maysan2
Amanat Baghdad1
L
01.03.26
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad1
Al-Naft SC2
L
22.02.26
Stars League: Al-Kahrabaa5
Amanat Baghdad0
L
06.02.26
Stars League: Amanat Baghdad0
Al-Mina’a SC0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Iraq Stars League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.20 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Shorta vs Baghdad?
Our selection is 1 — Al Shorta to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Al Shorta's current form?
Al Shorta have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baghdad been performing recently?
Baghdad have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Shorta lead with 9 wins versus Baghdad's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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