WON

Result: Ethiopia 1-0 Sao Tome

Ethiopia

Home Side

W L W L L

4W 0D 6L

1-0

AFCON Qualifiers

Sao Tome

Away Side

L W L L L

1W 1D 8L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Ethiopia to win — Tuesday, 31st March 2026

Best Odds 1.47

Confidence 50%

Implied Prob 68%

50%

20%

30%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Ethiopia to win

1.47

Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No85%

Implied Prob

68%

Based on 1.47 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-18%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Ethiopia

Draws

Sao Tome

Meetings

BTTS Rate

67%

Over 2.5

2.3

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Ethiopia won 2 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Ethiopia

Metric

Sao Tome

1.5

Goals For / Game

1.4

Goals Against / Game

30%

Clean Sheet %

4-0-6

W — D — L

1-1-8

Win Rate Comparison

40%

10%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 23.5%

0-1 16.4%

0-2 5.8%

0-3 1.3%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 17.6%

1-1 12.3%

1-2 4.3%

1-3 1.0%

1-4 0.2%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 6.6%

2-1 4.6%

2-2 1.6%

2-3 0.4%

2-4 0.1%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 1.7%

3-1 1.2%

3-2 0.4%

3-3 0.1%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 0.3%

4-1 0.2%

4-2 0.1%

4-3 0.0%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.1%

5-1 0.0%

5-2 0.0%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (17.6%) 2-0 (6.6%) 2-1 (4.6%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · E=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Ethiopia Win

50%

Draw

20%

Sao Tome Win

30%

3.33

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Ethiopia

Overall

4.0 —

Scoring

5.0 —

Defence

5.3 —

Sao Tome

Overall

1.3 ▼

Scoring

0.0 ▼

Defence

10.0 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Home Win & BTTS No 62%

Draw & BTTS Yes 1%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 3%

Away Win & BTTS No 15%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 18%

Home Win & Under 2.5 55%

Draw & Over 2.5 2%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 5%

Away Win & Under 2.5 14%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

27.03.26

AFCON: São Tomé and Príncipe0

Ethiopia3

11.10.15

WCQ: Ethiopia3

São Tomé and Príncipe0

08.10.15

WCQ: São Tome and Príncipe1

Ethiopia0

Recent Form

Ethiopia

27.03.26

AFCON: São Tomé and Príncipe0

Ethiopia3

12.10.25

WCQ: Burkina Faso3

Ethiopia1

08.10.25

WCQ: Ethiopia1

Guinea-Bissau0

09.09.25

WCQ: Sierra Leone2

Ethiopia0

05.09.25

WCQ: Egypt2

Ethiopia0

02.08.25

FI: DC United0

Ethiopia3

24.03.25

WCQ: Ethiopia6

Djibouti1

21.03.25

WCQ: Ethiopia0

Egypt2

25.12.24

ANC: Sudan2

Ethiopia1

22.12.24

ANC: Ethiopia0

Sudan2

Sao Tome

27.03.26

ACN: São Tomé and Príncipe0

Ethiopia3

13.10.25

WCQ: São Tomé and Príncipe1

Malawi0

10.10.25

WCQ: São Tomé and Príncipe0

Tunisia6

09.09.25

WCQ: Namibia3

São Tomé and Príncipe0

04.09.25

WCQ: São Tomé and Príncipe2

Equatorial Guinea3

24.03.25

WCQ: Liberia2

São Tomé and Príncipe1

21.03.25

WCQ: Equatorial Guinea2

São Tomé and Príncipe0

09.06.24

WCQ: São Tomé and Príncipe0

Liberia1

06.06.24

WCQ: Malawi3

São Tomé and Príncipe1

26.03.24

ACN: South Sudan0

São Tomé and Príncipe0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this AFCON Qualifiers game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.47 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Ethiopia vs Sao Tome?

Our selection is 1 — Ethiopia to win, priced at approximately 1.47. Tip confidence rating: 50%.

What is Ethiopia's current form?

Ethiopia have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.

How has Sao Tome been performing recently?

Sao Tome have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Ethiopia lead with 2 wins versus Sao Tome's 1, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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