WON

Result: Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland

Italy

Home Side

L W W W W

6W 1D 3L

2-0

Euro World Cup Qualifier

Northern Ireland

Away Side

W L L W L

4W 1D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Italy to win — Thursday, 26th March 2026

Best Odds 1.30

Confidence 61%

Implied Prob 76.9%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Italy to win

1.30

Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

76.9%

Based on 1.30 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-15.9%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Italy

Draws

Northern Ireland

Meetings

13%

BTTS Rate

38%

Over 2.5

1.8

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Italy won 5 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Italy

Metric

Northern Ireland

2.5

Goals For / Game

1.1

1.7

Goals Against / Game

1.4

40%

Clean Sheet %

30%

6-1-3

W — D — L

4-1-5

Win Rate Comparison

60%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 3.5%

0-1 4.9%

0-2 3.4%

0-3 1.6%

0-4 0.6%

0-5 0.2%

1-0 6.8%

1-1 9.6%

1-2 6.7%

1-3 3.1%

1-4 1.1%

1-5 0.3%

2-0 6.7%

2-1 9.3%

2-2 6.5%

2-3 3.1%

2-4 1.1%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 4.3%

3-1 6.1%

3-2 4.3%

3-3 2.0%

3-4 0.7%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 2.1%

4-1 3.0%

4-2 2.1%

4-3 1.0%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.8%

5-1 1.2%

5-2 0.8%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.3%) 1-0 (6.8%) 2-0 (6.7%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · I=Home goals ↓ N=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Italy Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Northern Ireland Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Italy

Overall

6.3 ▼

Scoring

8.3 ▼

Defence

4.3 ▼

Northern Ireland

Overall

4.3 —

Scoring

3.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%

Home Win & BTTS No 28%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 18%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 33%

Home Win & Under 2.5 22%

Draw & Over 2.5 5%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 22%

Away Win & Under 2.5 14%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

15.11.21

WCQ: Northern Ireland0

Italy0

25.03.21

WCQ: Italy2

Northern Ireland0

11.10.11

EUR: Italy3

Northern Ireland0

08.10.10

EUR: Northern Ireland0

Italy0

06.06.09

FI: Italy3

Northern Ireland0

03.06.03

FI: Italy2

Northern Ireland0

15.01.58

WCQ: Northern Ireland2

Italy1

25.04.57

WCQ: Italy1

Northern Ireland0

Recent Form

Italy

16.11.25

WCQ: Italy1

Norway4

13.11.25

WCQ: Moldova0

Italy2

14.10.25

WCQ: Italy3

Israel0

11.10.25

WCQ: Estonia1

Italy3

08.09.25

WCQ: Israel4

Italy5

05.09.25

WCQ: Italy5

Estonia0

09.06.25

WCQ: Italy2

Moldova0

06.06.25

WCQ: Norway3

Italy0

23.03.25

UNL: Germany3

Italy3

20.03.25

UNL: Italy1

Germany2

Northern Ireland

17.11.25

WCQ: Northern Ireland1

Luxembourg0

14.11.25

WCQ: Slovakia1

Northern Ireland0

13.10.25

WCQ: Northern Ireland0

Germany1

10.10.25

WCQ: Northern Ireland2

Slovakia0

07.09.25

WCQ: Germany3

Northern Ireland1

04.09.25

WCQ: Luxembourg1

Northern Ireland3

10.06.25

FI: Northern Ireland1

Iceland0

07.06.25

FI: Denmark2

Northern Ireland1

25.03.25

FI: Sweden5

Northern Ireland1

21.03.25

FI: Northern Ireland1

Switzerland1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Euro World Cup Qualifier game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Italy vs Northern Ireland?

Our selection is 1 — Italy to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 61%.

What is Italy's current form?

Italy have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.

How has Northern Ireland been performing recently?

Northern Ireland have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Italy lead with 5 wins versus Northern Ireland's 1, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 13%.

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