WON
Result: Sabah Baku 3-1 Sumqayit
DirectWinPredict โ€บ Azerbaijan Leagueโ€บ Sabah Baku vs Sumqayit
S

Sabah Baku

Home Side
W W W D W
7W 3D 0L
VS
3-1
Azerbaijan League
S
Sumqayit
Away Side
L D L L D
1W 3D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Sabah Baku to win โ€” Thursday, 19th March 2026
Best Odds 1.22
Confidence 60%
Implied Prob 82%
โš” Head to Head Record
5
Sabah Baku
4
Draws
1
Sumqayit
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
2.6
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Sabah Baku won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
๐Ÿ“Š Key Stats Duel Comparison
Sabah Baku
Metric
Sumqayit
3.1
Goals For / Game
0.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-3-0
W โ€” D โ€” L
1-3-6
Win Rate Comparison
70%
10%
๐ŸŽฏ Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 4.0%
0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 8.8%
1-2 3.5%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 12.1%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 8.8%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 4.9%
4-1 3.9%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 2.1%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (12.1%) 1-0 (11.0%) 2-1 (9.6%)
โ–  Most likely (tip) โ–  Possible (tip) โ–  Low (tip)  ยท  โ–  Contradicts tip Poisson model ยท S=Home goals โ†“   S=Away goals โ†’
๐Ÿ“ˆ Team Ratings Grades
Sabah Baku
Overall
7.9 โ–ฒ
Scoring
10.0 โ–ฒ
Defence
6.7 โ–ฒ
Sumqayit
Overall
1.9 โ–ฒ
Scoring
2.0 โ–ฒ
Defence
5.7 โ–ฒ
๐Ÿ”€ Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
๐Ÿงฎ Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake Amount
โ€”
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
๐Ÿ“œ Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
22.12.25
PL: Sumqayit1
Sabah Baku3
28.09.25
PL: Sabah Baku1
Sumqayit1
29.03.25
PL: Sumqayit3
Sabah Baku3
27.02.25
CUP: Sumqayit0
Sabah Baku4
05.02.25
CUP: Sabah Baku0
Sumqayit0
25.01.25
PL: Sabah Baku0
Sumqayit0
03.11.24
PL: Sumqayit1
Sabah Baku0
25.08.24
PL: Sabah Baku3
Sumqayit1
18.05.24
PL: Sabah Baku2
Sumqayit0
17.03.24
PL: Sumqayit1
Sabah Baku2
Recent Form
Sabah Baku
14.03.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Sabah Baku5
W
10.03.26
PL: Sabah Baku7
Gabala1
W
05.03.26
CUP: Gabala3
Sabah Baku (7-5 pens)3
L
01.03.26
PL: Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
D
22.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
W
16.02.26
PL: Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
W
08.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku4
Araz1
W
04.02.26
CUP: Sabah Baku0
Gabala0
D
31.01.26
PL: Zira1
Sabah Baku3
W
25.01.26
PL: Sabah Baku4
Karvan1
W
Sumqayit
13.03.26
PL: Sumqayit0
Shamakhi1
L
07.03.26
PL: Karvan1
Sumqayit1
D
03.03.26
CUP: Zira2
Sumqayit0
L
27.02.26
PL: Kapaz3
Sumqayit0
L
20.02.26
PL: Sumqayit0
Gabala0
D
15.02.26
PL: Araz1
Sumqayit0
L
08.02.26
PL: Sumqayit2
Zira3
L
04.02.26
CUP: Sumqayit0
Zira0
D
30.01.26
PL: Karvan0
Sumqayit2
W
25.01.26
PL: Turan Tovuz2
Sumqayit1
L
๐Ÿ“ Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer. Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today. It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page. The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the 1.22 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

โ“ Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Sumqayit?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Sabah Baku's current form?
Sabah Baku have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sumqayit been performing recently?
Sumqayit have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabah Baku lead with 5 wins versus Sumqayit's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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