WON
Result:
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3-1 Baghdad
A
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Home Side
W
W
W
W
W
5W 0D 0L
VS
3-1
B
Baghdad
Away Side
L
L
L
L
D
0W 2D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win — Tuesday, 17th March 2026
Best Odds
1.28
Confidence
72%
Implied Prob
78.1%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win
1.28
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
78.1%
Based on 1.28 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-6.1%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2
Draws
0
Baghdad
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Metric
Baghdad
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.4
0.6
Goals Against / Game
2
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
5-0-0
W — D — L
0-2-3
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0
9.1%
0-1
4.5%
0-2
1.1%
0-3
0.2%
0-4
0.0%
0-5
0.0%
A1
1-0
17.2%
1-1
8.6%
1-2
2.2%
1-3
0.4%
1-4
0.0%
1-5
0.0%
A2
2-0
16.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
2.1%
2-3
0.3%
2-4
0.0%
2-5
0.0%
A3
3-0
10.4%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
1.3%
3-3
0.2%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
A4
4-0
4.9%
4-1
2.5%
4-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
1.9%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (17.2%)
2-0 (16.4%)
3-0 (10.4%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ B=Away goals →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
42%
Home Win & BTTS No
42%
Draw & BTTS Yes
9%
Draw & BTTS No
9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
42%
Home Win & Under 2.5
42%
Draw & Over 2.5
9%
Draw & Under 2.5
9%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
SL: Baghdad0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
SL: Baghdad0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
Baghdad1
SL: Baghdad0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya0
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Baghdad1
Recent Form
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
SL: Diyala0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
SL: Al Gharraf1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Al Najaf0
SL: Al Talaba1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Newroz1
Baghdad
SL: Baghdad0
Newroz2
SL: Baghdad1
Al Naft2
SL: Al Kahraba5
Baghdad0
SL: Baghdad0
Al Minaa0
SL: Baghdad1
Erbil1
Match Analysis
Writeup
In the Iraq Stars League, Al Quwa Al Jawiya is the team to beat. They currently occupy the top spot with 16 wins in 22 matches, driven by an airtight defense that has conceded only 11 goals all season. Their recent form is stellar, coming into this game on a six-match winning streak.
Amanat Baghdad, currently languishing in 17th place, faces a daunting task. The last time these two met in January, Al Quwa Al Jawiya cruised to a 2-0 victory on the road. Returning to their home turf, the league leaders are expected to repeat that performance against a struggling Baghdad side.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Baghdad?
Our selection is 1 — Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Al Quwa Al Jawiya's current form?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Baghdad been performing recently?
Baghdad have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya lead with 3 wins versus Baghdad's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.