WON
Result:
FC Porto 2-0 Moreirense
F
FC Porto
Home Side
W
D
L
W
W
3W 1D 1L
VS
2-0
M
Moreirense
Away Side
D
D
L
W
L
1W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing FC Porto to win — Sunday, 15th March 2026
Best Odds
1.23
Confidence
65%
Implied Prob
81.3%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — FC Porto to win
1.23
Over 1.5 Goals80%
BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
81.3%
Based on 1.23 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-16.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
4
FC Porto
0
Draws
1
Moreirense
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
FC Porto won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
FC Porto
Metric
Moreirense
1.6
Goals For / Game
1
1
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheet %
0%
3-1-1
W — D — L
1-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
F0
0-0
7.4%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
3.7%
0-3
1.2%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
F1
1-0
11.9%
1-1
11.9%
1-2
5.9%
1-3
2.0%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
F2
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
4.8%
2-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
F3
3-0
5.1%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
F4
4-0
2.0%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
F5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (11.9%)
2-0 (9.5%)
2-1 (9.5%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓ M=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FC Porto Win
1.67
60%
Draw
5
20%
Moreirense Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
39%
Home Win & BTTS No
17%
Draw & BTTS Yes
19%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
13%
Away Win & BTTS No
5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
33%
Home Win & Under 2.5
22%
Draw & Over 2.5
16%
Draw & Under 2.5
11%
Away Win & Over 2.5
11%
Away Win & Under 2.5
7%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
LP: Moreirense1
FC Porto2
LP: FC Porto3
Moreirense1
LP: Moreirense0
FC Porto3
TP: Moreirense2
FC Porto1
CUP: FC Porto2
Moreirense0
Recent Form
FC Porto
UEL: VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto2
LP: Benfica2
FC Porto2
TP: Sporting CP1
FC Porto0
LP: FC Porto3
Arouca1
LP: FC Porto1
Rio Ave0
Moreirense
LP: Moreirense1
Nacional1
LP: Casa Pia1
Moreirense1
LP: Moreirense0
Sporting CP3
LP: Rio Ave1
Moreirense2
LP: Moreirense1
Gil Vicente2
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FC Porto vs Moreirense?
Our selection is 1 — FC Porto to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is FC Porto's current form?
FC Porto have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Moreirense been performing recently?
Moreirense have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FC Porto lead with 4 wins versus Moreirense's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.