WON
Result:
Napoli 2-1 Lecce
N
Napoli
Home Side
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L
VS
2-1
L
Lecce
Away Side
W
L
L
W
W
3W 0D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Napoli to win — Saturday, 14th March 2026
Best Odds
1.40
Confidence
19%
Implied Prob
71.4%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Napoli to win
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals100%
BTTS — Yes80%
Implied Prob
71.4%
Based on 1.40 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-52.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
4
Napoli
1
Draws
0
Lecce
5
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Napoli won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Napoli
Metric
Lecce
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheet %
20%
2-1-2
W — D — L
3-0-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
N0
0-0
5.0%
0-1
7.5%
0-2
5.6%
0-3
2.8%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
N1
1-0
7.5%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.4%
1-3
4.2%
1-4
1.6%
1-5
0.5%
N2
2-0
5.6%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
3.2%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
N3
3-0
2.8%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
3.2%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
N4
4-0
1.1%
4-1
1.6%
4-2
1.2%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
N5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
2-1 (8.4%)
1-0 (7.5%)
2-0 (5.6%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · N=Home goals ↓ L=Away goals →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Home Win & BTTS No
7%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
44%
Away Win & BTTS No
11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
29%
Home Win & Under 2.5
7%
Draw & Over 2.5
7%
Draw & Under 2.5
2%
Away Win & Over 2.5
44%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ SA (Oct 28, 2025): Lecce0
Napoli1
⚽ SA (May 3, 2025): Lecce0
Napoli1
⚽ SA (Oct 26, 2024): Napoli1
Lecce0
⚽ SA (May 26, 2024): Napoli0
Lecce0
⚽ SA (Sep 30, 2023): Lecce0
Napoli4
Recent Form
Napoli
⚽ SA (Mar 6, 2026): Napoli2
Torino1
⚽ SA (Feb 28, 2026): Verona1
Napoli2
⚽ SA (Feb 22, 2026): Atalanta2
Napoli1
⚽ SA (Feb 15, 2026): Napoli2
AS Roma2
⚽ COP (Feb 10, 2026): Napoli1
Como2
Lecce
⚽ SA (Mar 8, 2026): Lecce2
Cremonese1
⚽ SA (Feb 28, 2026): Como3
Lecce1
⚽ SA (Feb 21, 2026): Lecce0
Inter2
⚽ SA (Feb 16, 2026): Cagliari0
Lecce2
⚽ SA (Feb 8, 2026): Lecce2
Udinese1
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Napoli vs Lecce?
Our selection is 1 — Napoli to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 19%.
What is Napoli's current form?
Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Lecce been performing recently?
Lecce have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Napoli lead with 4 wins versus Lecce's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.